Next Conservatives leader - What the bookies think (2016-06-30 update)

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon each candidate has.

Theresa May takes the lead.

Position	Candidate	Chance implied by odds	Change (since 2016-06-26)	Notes
1	Theresa May	52.64%	+22.50%	Remain
2	Boris Johnson	25.31%	-29.01%	Leave
3	Michael Gove	24.65%	+17.80%	Leave
4	Andrea Leadsom	8.33%	-2.22%
5	Stephen Crabb	6.48%	-2.40%	Remain
6	Liam Fox	3.78%	-3.02%	Leave
7	Jeremy Hunt	2.19%	+0.38%	Remain
-	Justin Tomlinson	1.49%	+0.01%	Books closed on 2016-06-29
-	Patrick McLoughlin	1.49%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
8	Nicky Morgan	1.39%	-0.82%	Remain
9	Priti Patel	1.26%	-2.31%	Leave
10	Jacob Rees-Mogg	1.09%	-1.97%	Leave
11	George Osborne	1.06%	-2.01%	Remain
12	David Davis	0.99%	-0.94%	Leave
-	James Duddridge	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Stuart Jackson	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Edward Timpson	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Mark Pawsey	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Phillip Lee	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Greg Hands	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Philip Davies	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
13	Nigel Farage	0.99%	0.00%
-	Nicola Blackwood	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Louise Mensch	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
13	Jo Johnson	0.99%	-0.33%	Remain
-	Andrew Percy	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Bob Stewart	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Daniel Kawcynski	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Andrew Rosindell	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Guy Opperman	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Karen Bradley	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	James Cleverly	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Hugh Robertson	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Oliver Heald	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Robert Goodwill	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Christopher Pincher	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Helen Grant	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Mark Menzies	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	David Jones	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Jim Paice	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Johnny Mercer	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Mary Macleod	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Heidi Allen	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Michael Ashcroft	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Stephen Barclay	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Liz Kendall	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Bob Blackman	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Gavin Barwell	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Caroline Noakes	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Jonathan Lord	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Laurence Robertson	0.99%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
15	Phillip Hammond	0.98%	-1.64%	Remain
16	Sajid Javid	0.95%	-1.02%	Remain
17	Ruth Davidson	0.86%	-1.77%	Remain
18	Dominic Raab	0.80%	-2.57%	Leave
19	Rory Stewart	0.74%	-0.44%	Remain
20	Penny Mordaunt	0.73%	-0.67%	Leave
21	Iain Duncan Smith	0.72%	-0.74%	Leave
22	Chris Grayling	0.71%	-1.52%	Leave
23	Daniel Hannan	0.69%	-0.37%	Leave
24	Michael Fallon	0.69%	-0.37%	Remain
25	Jesse Norman	0.65%	-0.47%
26	Amber Rudd	0.64%	-0.79%	Remain
27	Graham Brady	0.61%	-0.69%	Leave
28	Liz Truss	0.59%	-0.98%	Remain
29	Zac Goldsmith	0.57%	-0.52%
30	Owen Paterson	0.56%	-1.41%
31	Anna Soubry	0.54%	-0.60%	Remain
32	William Hague	0.53%	-0.08%
33	Theresa Villiers	0.52%	-0.31%
34	Kwasi Kwarteng	0.52%	-0.20%
35	Justine Greening	0.50%	-0.54%	Remain
-	Iain Dale	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Peter Bone	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Sheryll Murray	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Jonathan Sheppard	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Andrew Strauss	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	David Morris	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Michael Fabricant	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Marcus Jones	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Michael Winstanley	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
-	Tim Montgomerie	0.50%	0.00%	Books closed on 2016-06-28
36	Adam Afriyie	0.49%	-0.96%
37	Ken Clarke	0.47%	-0.05%
38	Robert Halfon	0.47%	-0.51%
39	Chloe Smith	0.47%	-0.08%
40	Sam Gyimah	0.46%	-0.10%
41	Mark Harper	0.45%	-0.31%
42	Nick Herbert	0.44%	-0.21%
42	Nick Boles	0.44%	-0.17%
44	Greg Clark	0.43%	-0.33%
45	Edward Vaizey	0.42%	-0.49%
46	Grant Shapps	0.37%	-0.23%
47	Alan Duncan	0.37%	-0.51%
47	Oliver Letwin	0.37%	-0.01%
49	Andrew Mitchell	0.36%	-0.19%
50	Claire Perry	0.35%	-0.02%
50	Sarah Wollaston	0.35%	-0.29%
52	Maria Miller	0.33%	-0.12%
52	Francis Maude	0.33%	+0.01%
54	Dominic Grieve	0.30%	-0.07%
54	Caroline Spelman	0.30%	-0.11%
56	Matthew Hancock	0.29%	-0.43%
56	Esther McVey	0.29%	-0.28%
58	Rupert Harrison	0.23%	-0.05%
59	John Bercow	0.18%	+0.01%
60	James Wharton	0.17%	-0.19%
60	Harriet Baldwin	0.17%	-0.03%
62	Robert Buckland	0.11%	-0.09%
62	Eric Pickles	0.11%	-0.09%
62	Damian Green	0.11%	-0.09%
62	Patrick McLaughlin	0.11%	0.00%
62	Tracey Crouch	0.11%	-0.09%
62	D Willetts	0.11%	0.00%
62	Nick Gibb	0.11%	-0.09%
62	Michael Portillo	0.11%	-0.05%
62	Peter Ainsworth	0.11%	0.00%
62	Malcom Rifkind	0.11%	0.00%
62	Sir George Young	0.11%	0.00%
62	John Redwood	0.11%	-0.09%
62	John Penrose	0.11%	-0.09%
62	Shaun Bailey	0.11%	-0.09%
62	Nadine Dorries	0.11%	-0.07%
62	Andrew Lansley	0.11%	-0.10%
62	Louise Bagshawe	0.11%	0.00%
62	Mark Field	0.11%	0.00%