Sunday 26 June 2016

Next Conservatives leader - What the bookies think

Odds given across various bookmakers (10bet, 32red, 888sport, bet365, betdaq, betfair, betfred, betvictor, betway, boylesports, bwin, coral, ladbrokes, marathon bet, matchbook, netbet, paddypower, skybet, sportingbet, stanjames, totesport, unibet, williamhill, winner) are meaned and then inverted to give the rough chance bookies as a gestalt reckon each candidate has.



Position Candidate Chance implied by odds Change (since 2016-06-24) Notes
1 Boris Johnson 55.50% -6.54% Leave
2 Theresa May 28.67% +2.74% Remain
3 Andrea Leadson 11.33% +3.28% Leave
4 Stephen Crabb 8.59% +3.73% Remain
5 Michael Gove 8.49% -4.98% Leave
6 Liam Fox 6.07% +1.93% Leave
7 Priti Patel 4.48% -1.70% Leave
8 Dominic Raab 4.12% +0.43% Leave
9 George Osborne 3.27% -0.17% Remain
10 Phillip Hammond 2.99% -0.70% Remain
11 Jacob Rees-Mogg 2.81% +0.01% Leave
12 Ruth Davidson 2.64% -1.22% Remain
13 Nicky Morgan 2.55% -0.27% Remain
14 Sajid Javid 2.36% -0.79% Remain
15 Chris Grayling 2.12% -0.54% Leave
16 Owen Paterson 2.00% +0.53%
17 David Davis 1.91% -0.20% Leave
18 Jeremy Hunt 1.86% -0.30% Remain
19 Michael Fallon 1.77% +0.59% Remain
20 Penny Mordaunt 1.53% -0.56% Leave
21 Iain Duncan Smith 1.53% -0.23% Leave
22 Patrick McLoughlin 1.49% 0.00% Remain
23 Justin Tomlinson 1.48% +0.49% Leave
24 Amber Rudd 1.41% -0.48% Remain
25 Liz Truss 1.38% -0.27% Remain
26 Adam Afriyie 1.38% +0.37%
27 Jo Johnson 1.32% 0.00% Remain
28 Graham Brady 1.28% -0.68% Leave
29 Rory Stewart 1.09% -0.26% Remain
30 Jesse Norman 1.09% -0.13%
31 Justine Greening 1.08% -0.25% Remain
32 Robert Halfon 1.01% +0.26%
33 James Duddridge 0.99% 0.00%
33 Stuart Jackson 0.99% 0.00%
33 Edward Timpson 0.99% 0.00%
33 Mark Pawsey 0.99% 0.00%
33 Phillip Lee 0.99% 0.00%
33 Greg Hands 0.99% 0.00%
33 Philip Davies 0.99% 0.00%
33 Nigel Farage 0.99% 0.00%
33 Nicola Blackwood 0.99% 0.00%
33 Louise Mensch 0.99% 0.00%
33 Andrew Percy 0.99% 0.00%
33 Bob Stewart 0.99% 0.00%
33 Daniel Kawcynski 0.99% 0.00%
33 Andrew Rosindell 0.99% 0.00%
33 Guy Opperman 0.99% 0.00%
33 Karen Bradley 0.99% 0.00%
33 James Cleverly 0.99% 0.00%
33 Hugh Robertson 0.99% 0.00%
33 Oliver Heald 0.99% 0.00%
33 Robert Goodwill 0.99% 0.00%
33 Christopher Pincher 0.99% 0.00%
33 Helen Grant 0.99% 0.00%
33 Mark Menzies 0.99% 0.00%
33 David Jones 0.99% 0.00%
33 Jim Paice 0.99% 0.00%
33 Johnny Mercer 0.99% 0.00%
33 Mary Macleod 0.99% 0.00%
33 Heidi Allen 0.99% 0.00%
33 Michael Ashcroft 0.99% 0.00%
33 Stephen Barclay 0.99% 0.00%
33 Liz Kendall 0.99% 0.00%
33 Bob Blackman 0.99% 0.00%
33 Gavin Barwell 0.99% 0.00%
33 Caroline Noakes 0.99% 0.00%
33 Jonathan Lord 0.99% 0.00%
33 Laurence Robertson 0.99% 0.00%
69 Theresa Villiers 0.99% -0.48%
70 Daniel Hannan 0.98% -0.04%
71 Zac Goldsmith 0.98% -0.39%
72 Anna Soubry 0.93% -0.54%
73 Edward Vaizey 0.93% -0.04%
74 Kwasi Kwarteng 0.81% +0.21%
75 Greg Clark 0.74% -0.29%
76 Mark Harper 0.69% -0.87%
77 Nick Herbert 0.68% -0.04%
78 Nick Boles 0.63% -0.08%
79 Esther McVey 0.61% -0.07%
79 Sam Gyimah 0.61% -0.03%
81 William Hague 0.61% -0.61%
82 Grant Shapps 0.60% -0.18%
83 Chloe Smith 0.57% -0.01%
84 Andrew Mitchell 0.56% -0.01%
85 Ken Clarke 0.54% -0.24%
86 Matthew Hancock 0.54% -0.02%
87 Iain Dale 0.50% 0.00%
87 Peter Bone 0.50% 0.00%
87 Sheryll Murray 0.50% 0.00%
87 Jonathan Sheppard 0.50% 0.00%
87 Andrew Strauss 0.50% 0.00%
87 David Morris 0.50% 0.00%
87 Michael Fabricant 0.50% 0.00%
87 Marcus Jones 0.50% 0.00%
87 Michael Winstanley 0.50% 0.00%
87 Tim Montgomerie 0.50% 0.00%
97 Maria Miller 0.48% 0.00%
98 Oliver Letwin 0.43% +0.02%
99 Alan Duncan 0.42% 0.00%
100 Caroline Spelman 0.41% -0.19%
101 Dominic Grieve 0.37% -0.20%
101 Claire Perry 0.37% 0.00%
101 Sarah Wollaston 0.37% -0.31%
101 Francis Maude 0.37% 0.00%
105 Rupert Harrison 0.28% -1.67%
106 Andrew Lansley 0.20% -0.60%
107 James Wharton 0.20% -0.39%
107 Robert Buckland 0.20% -0.33%
107 Harriet Baldwin 0.20% 0.00%
107 Tracey Crouch 0.20% 0.00%
107 Nick Gibb 0.20% 0.00%
107 John Penrose 0.20% 0.00%
113 Eric Pickles 0.19% 0.00%
113 Damian Green 0.19% 0.00%
113 John Redwood 0.19% 0.00%
113 Shaun Bailey 0.19% 0.00%
117 John Bercow 0.17% 0.00%
117 Nadine Dorries 0.17% 0.00%
119 Patrick McLaughlin 0.11% -0.16%
119 D Willetts 0.11% 0.00%
119 Michael Portillo 0.11% -0.42%
119 Peter Ainsworth 0.11% 0.00%
119 Malcom Rifkind 0.11% 0.00%
119 Sir George Young 0.11% 0.00%
119 Louise Bagshawe 0.11% 0.00%
119 Mark Field 0.11% -0.06%

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