Monday 8 February 2016

Holyrood 2016 result predictions given polling (2016-02-08 update)

Holyrood 2016

Current polling:

Moving average of latest polls for constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 53.32%
Labour 21.81%
Conservative 14.76%
Liberal Democrat 5.29%
Green 2.10%
UKIP 1.60%
Scottish Christian 0.68%
CISTA 0.22%
Scottish Socialist 0.17%
TUSC 0.12%
Solidarity 0.02%
(25624 samples over 29 polls)
Moving average of latest polls for regional list vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 46.50%
Labour 21.31%
Conservative 14.44%
Green 7.61%
Liberal Democrat 5.69%
UKIP 2.62%
Scottish Socialist 1.26%
TUSC 0.48%
Scottish Christian 0.35%
Solidarity 0.17%
BNP 0.14%
CISTA 0.12%
Socialist Labour 0.12%
Scottish Pensioners 0.12%
(25486 samples over 29 polls)

Scotland Overall Summary:

Predicted outcome of Holyrood 2016 election given current polling:
SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats 73 (+20) 0 (-15) 0 (-3) 0 (-2) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 1 (-15) 26 (+4) 16 (+4) 6 (+3) 7 (+5) 0 (-1)
Total Seats 74 (+5) 26 (-11) 16 (+1) 6 (+1) 7 (+5) 0 (-1)



SNP Labour Conservative Green Liberal Democrat
1 SNP Candidate
(Linlithgow)
Kezia Dugdale
(Lothian list)
Ruth Davidson
(Lothian list)
Alison Johnstone
(Lothian list)
Alex Cole-Hamilton
(Lothian list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Eastern)
Neil Findlay
(Lothian list)
Miles Briggs
(Lothian list)
Andy Wightman
(Lothian list)
Jim Hume
(South Scotland list)
3 SNP Candidate
(Almond Valley)
Jackie Baillie
(West Scotland list)
Jackson Carlaw
(West Scotland list)
Ross Greer
(West Scotland list)
Willie Rennie
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
4 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Pentlands)
Neil Bibby
(West Scotland list)
Jamie Greene
(West Scotland list)
Mark Ruskell
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Jamie Stone
(Highlands and Islands list)
5 SNP Candidate
(Midlothian North & Musselburgh)
Mary Fee
(West Scotland list)
John Scott
(South Scotland list)
John Finnie
(Highlands and Islands list)
Kate Stephen
(Highlands and Islands list)
6 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Central)
Ken MacIntosh
(West Scotland list)
Oliver Mundell
(South Scotland list)
Maggie Chapman
(North East Scotland list)
Mike Rumbles
(North East Scotland list)
7 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Western)
Iain Gray
(South Scotland list)
Rachael Hamilton
(South Scotland list)
Patrick Harvie
(Glasgow list)
-
8 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Northern & Leith)
Claudia Beamish
(South Scotland list)
Margaret Mitchell
(Central Scotland list)
- -
9 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Southern)
Colin Smyth
(South Scotland list)
Murdo Fraser
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- -
10 SNP Candidate
(Greenock & Inverclyde)
Richard Leonard
(Central Scotland list)
Liz Smith
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- -
11 SNP Candidate
(Cunninghame North)
Monica Lennon
(Central Scotland list)
Douglas Ross
(Highlands and Islands list)
- -
12 SNP Candidate
(Renfrewshire South)
Mark Griffin
(Central Scotland list)
Edward Mountain
(Highlands and Islands list)
- -
13 SNP Candidate
(Clydebank & Milngavie)
Elaine Smith
(Central Scotland list)
Alex Johnstone
(North East Scotland list)
- -
14 SNP Candidate
(Cunninghame South)
Craig Martin
(Central Scotland list)
Alexander Burnett
(North East Scotland list)
- -
15 SNP Candidate
(Paisley)
Alex Rowley
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Ross Thomson
(North East Scotland list)
- -
16 SNP Candidate
(Renfrewshire North & West)
Claire Baker
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Adam Tomkins
(Glasgow list)
- -
17 SNP Candidate
(Strathkelvin & Bearsden)
Thomas Docherty
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- - -
18 SNP Candidate
(Eastwood)
Rhoda Grant
(Highlands and Islands list)
- - -
19 SNP Candidate
(Dumbarton)
David Stewart
(Highlands and Islands list)
- - -
20 SNP Candidate
(Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)
Jenny Marra
(North East Scotland list)
- - -
21 SNP Candidate
(Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)
Lewis MacDonald
(North East Scotland list)
- - -
22 SNP Candidate
(East Lothian)
Anas Sarwar
(Glasgow list)
- - -
23 SNP Candidate
(Dumfriesshire)
Johann Lamont
(Glasgow list)
- - -
24 SNP Candidate
(Clydesdale)
James Kelly
(Glasgow list)
- - -
25 SNP Candidate
(Galloway & West Dumfries)
Pauline McNeill
(Glasgow list)
- - -
26 SNP Candidate
(Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)
Bill Butler
(Glasgow list)
- - -
27 SNP Candidate
(Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)
- - - -
28 SNP Candidate
(Ayr)
- - - -
29 SNP Candidate
(Motherwell & Wishaw)
- - - -
30 SNP Candidate
(Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)
- - - -
31 SNP Candidate
(Falkirk East)
- - - -
32 SNP Candidate
(Coatbridge & Chryston)
- - - -
33 SNP Candidate
(Falkirk West)
- - - -
34 SNP Candidate
(Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)
- - - -
35 SNP Candidate
(East Kilbride)
- - - -
36 SNP Candidate
(Uddingston & Bellshill)
- - - -
37 SNP Candidate
(Airdrie & Shotts)
- - - -
38 SNP Candidate
(Mid Fife & Glenrothes)
- - - -
39 SNP Candidate
(Kirkcaldy)
- - - -
40 SNP Candidate
(Stirling)
- - - -
41 SNP Candidate
(Cowdenbeath)
- - - -
42 SNP Candidate
(North East Fife)
- - - -
43 SNP Candidate
(Dunfermline)
- - - -
44 SNP Candidate
(Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)
- - - -
45 SNP Candidate
(Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)
- - - -
46 SNP Candidate
(Perthshire North)
- - - -
47 SNP Candidate
(Moray)
- - - -
48 SNP Candidate
(Orkney Islands)
- - - -
49 SNP Candidate
(Shetland Islands)
- - - -
50 SNP Candidate
(Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)
- - - -
51 SNP Candidate
(Caithness Sutherland & Ross)
- - - -
52 SNP Candidate
(Argyll & Bute)
- - - -
53 SNP Candidate
(Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)
- - - -
54 SNP Candidate
(Inverness & Nairn)
- - - -
55 SNP Candidate
(Angus North & Mearns)
- - - -
56 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeenshire East)
- - - -
57 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeenshire West)
- - - -
58 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)
- - - -
59 SNP Candidate
(Angus South)
- - - -
60 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeen Donside)
- - - -
61 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeen Central)
- - - -
62 SNP Candidate
(Dundee City East)
- - - -
63 SNP Candidate
(Banffshire & Buchan Coast)
- - - -
64 SNP Candidate
(Dundee City West)
- - - -
65 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Pollok)
- - - -
66 SNP Candidate
(Rutherglen)
- - - -
67 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Kelvin)
- - - -
68 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Cathcart)
- - - -
69 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Anniesland)
- - - -
70 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Shettleston)
- - - -
71 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)
- - - -
72 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Provan)
- - - -
73 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Southside)
- - - -
74 SNP candidate
(Central Scotland list)
- - - -

Central Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+3) 0 (-3) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 1 (-2) 5 (+2) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
Total Seats 10 (+1) 5 (-1) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)

SNP Labour Conservative
1 SNP Candidate
(Motherwell & Wishaw)
Richard Leonard
(Central Scotland list)
Margaret Mitchell
(Central Scotland list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse)
Monica Lennon
(Central Scotland list)
-
3 SNP Candidate
(Falkirk East)
Mark Griffin
(Central Scotland list)
-
4 SNP Candidate
(Coatbridge & Chryston)
Elaine Smith
(Central Scotland list)
-
5 SNP Candidate
(Falkirk West)
Craig Martin
(Central Scotland list)
-
6 SNP Candidate
(Cumbernauld & Kilsyth)
- -
7 SNP Candidate
(East Kilbride)
- -
8 SNP Candidate
(Uddingston & Bellshill)
- -
9 SNP Candidate
(Airdrie & Shotts)
- -
10 SNP candidate
(Central Scotland list)
- -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 58.92%
Labour 24.46%
Conservative 9.75%
Liberal Democrat 2.23%
Green 2.23%
UKIP 1.15%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1096 samples over 12 polls)
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Airdrie & Shotts SNP (50.2%) SNP (61.8%)
Coatbridge & Chryston Labour (52.2%) SNP (57.0%)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth SNP (53.8%) SNP (63.6%)
East Kilbride SNP (48.0%) SNP (60.0%)
Falkirk East SNP (50.8%) SNP (61.8%)
Falkirk West SNP (55.3%) SNP (64.0%)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse SNP (48.1%) SNP (60.3%)
Motherwell & Wishaw Labour (43.8%) SNP (55.0%)
Uddingston & Bellshill Labour (46.1%) SNP (58.1%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 53.80%
Labour 25.87%
Conservative 8.72%
Green 5.87%
UKIP 2.92%
Liberal Democrat 1.68%
Scottish Socialist 0.72%
Solidarity 0.18%
TUSC 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1089 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Central Scotland List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 46.35% 50.37%
Labour 35.31% 26.72%
Conservative 6.37% 7.92%
Green 2.41% 4.94%
Pensioners 2.48% 2.44%
UKIP 0.54% 2.19%
Liberal Democrat 1.42% 1.58%
Christian Party 1.36% 1.34%
Scottish Socialist 0.35% 0.88%
Others 0.81% 0.80%
Independant 0.35% 0.35%
Solidarity 0.24% 0.23%
BNP 0.95% 0.17%
Socialist Labour 1.06% 0.07%

Predicted Central Scotland additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour (Richard Leonard)
2 Labour Labour (Monica Lennon)
3 SNP Labour (Mark Griffin)
4 Conservative Conservative (Margaret Mitchell)
5 Labour Labour (Elaine Smith)
6 SNP Labour (Craig Martin)
7 SNP SNP

Mid Scotland and Fife

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-1) 3 (n/c) 2 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 9 (n/c) 3 (-1) 2 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)

SNP Labour Conservative Green Liberal Democrat
1 SNP Candidate
(Mid Fife & Glenrothes)
Alex Rowley
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Murdo Fraser
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Mark Ruskell
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Willie Rennie
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Kirkcaldy)
Claire Baker
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
Liz Smith
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- -
3 SNP Candidate
(Stirling)
Thomas Docherty
(Mid Scotland and Fife list)
- - -
4 SNP Candidate
(Cowdenbeath)
- - - -
5 SNP Candidate
(North East Fife)
- - - -
6 SNP Candidate
(Dunfermline)
- - - -
7 SNP Candidate
(Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)
- - - -
8 SNP Candidate
(Clackmannanshire & Dunblane)
- - - -
9 SNP Candidate
(Perthshire North)
- - - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 54.29%
Labour 21.78%
Conservative 13.58%
Liberal Democrat 6.48%
UKIP 2.00%
Green 1.52%
CISTA 0.89%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(972 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane SNP (48.3%) SNP (57.5%)
Cowdenbeath Labour (46.5%) SNP (54.5%)
Dunfermline SNP (37.6%) SNP (52.9%)
Kirkcaldy SNP (45.2%) SNP (56.7%)
Mid Fife & Glenrothes SNP (52.3%) SNP (59.1%)
North East Fife SNP (37.2%) SNP (50.4%)
Perthshire North SNP (60.8%) SNP (61.4%)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire SNP (51.5%) SNP (57.2%)
Stirling SNP (48.9%) SNP (56.9%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 49.02%
Labour 21.05%
Conservative 13.76%
Green 6.75%
Liberal Democrat 6.48%
UKIP 2.08%
Socialist Labour 1.10%
Solidarity 0.56%
Scottish Socialist 0.12%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(969 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 45.20% 46.31%
Labour 25.03% 19.78%
Conservative 14.12% 14.44%
Green 4.23% 6.74%
Liberal Democrat 5.85% 6.17%
UKIP 1.10% 2.50%
Pensioners 1.59% 1.48%
Socialist Labour 0.69% 0.59%
Independant 0.57% 0.53%
Scottish Socialist 0.32% 0.52%
Solidarity 0.08% 0.32%
Christian Party 0.30% 0.28%
Others 0.25% 0.23%
BNP 0.67% 0.11%

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Conservative Labour (Alex Rowley)
2 Labour Conservative (Murdo Fraser)
3 Labour Labour (Claire Baker)
4 Conservative Conservative (Liz Smith)
5 Labour Green (Mark Ruskell)
6 Liberal Democrat Labour (Thomas Docherty)
7 SNP Liberal Democrat (Willie Rennie)

Lothian

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats 9 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (n/c) 2 (-1) 2 (n/c) 1 (+1) 2 (+1) 0 (-1)
Total Seats 9 (+1) 2 (-2) 2 (n/c) 1 (+1) 2 (+1) 0 (-1)

SNP Labour Conservative Green Liberal Democrat
1 SNP Candidate
(Linlithgow)
Kezia Dugdale
(Lothian list)
Ruth Davidson
(Lothian list)
Alison Johnstone
(Lothian list)
Alex Cole-Hamilton
(Lothian list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Eastern)
Neil Findlay
(Lothian list)
Miles Briggs
(Lothian list)
Andy Wightman
(Lothian list)
-
3 SNP Candidate
(Almond Valley)
- - - -
4 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Pentlands)
- - - -
5 SNP Candidate
(Midlothian North & Musselburgh)
- - - -
6 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Central)
- - - -
7 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Western)
- - - -
8 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Northern & Leith)
- - - -
9 SNP Candidate
(Edinburgh Southern)
- - - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 49.90%
Labour 23.51%
Conservative 15.50%
Liberal Democrat 7.54%
Green 3.60%
Scottish Christian 1.88%
UKIP 1.30%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(1279 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Lothian Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Almond Valley SNP (54.3%) SNP (58.3%)
Edinburgh Central SNP (32.7%) SNP (47.1%)
Edinburgh Eastern SNP (47.4%) SNP (55.2%)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith Labour (41.6%) SNP (51.4%)
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP (37.3%) SNP (48.0%)
Edinburgh Southern SNP (29.4%) SNP (45.0%)
Edinburgh Western SNP (35.8%) SNP (48.8%)
Linlithgow SNP (49.8%) SNP (55.8%)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh SNP (47.2%) SNP (54.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 40.93%
Labour 18.92%
Conservative 13.54%
Green 13.41%
Liberal Democrat 9.91%
UKIP 2.64%
TUSC 0.63%
CISTA 0.58%
Scottish Socialist 0.46%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1297 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Lothian List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 39.18% 40.82%
Labour 24.91% 19.39%
Conservative 11.66% 13.47%
Green 7.59% 13.21%
Liberal Democrat 5.50% 7.90%
UKIP 0.64% 2.23%
Pensioners 1.14% 1.13%
Scottish Socialist 0.42% 0.85%
Others 0.44% 0.44%
Christian Party 0.32% 0.32%
BNP 0.70% 0.12%
Solidarity 0.12% 0.07%
Socialist Labour 0.59% 0.04%
Margo MacDonald 6.79% 0.00%

Predicted Lothian additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour (Kezia Dugdale)
2 Conservative Conservative (Ruth Davidson)
3 Labour Green (Alison Johnstone)
4 Green Labour (Neil Findlay)
5 Margo MacDonald Liberal Democrat (Alex Cole-Hamilton)
6 Labour Conservative (Miles Briggs)
7 Conservative Green (Andy Wightman)

Highlands and Islands

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 8 (+2) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (-2) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-3) 2 (n/c) 2 (n/c) 2 (+2) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 8 (-1) 2 (n/c) 2 (n/c) 2 (n/c) 1 (+1)

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
1 SNP Candidate
(Moray)
Rhoda Grant
(Highlands and Islands list)
Douglas Ross
(Highlands and Islands list)
Jamie Stone
(Highlands and Islands list)
John Finnie
(Highlands and Islands list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Orkney Islands)
David Stewart
(Highlands and Islands list)
Edward Mountain
(Highlands and Islands list)
Kate Stephen
(Highlands and Islands list)
-
3 SNP Candidate
(Shetland Islands)
- - - -
4 SNP Candidate
(Nah h-Eilanan an Iar)
- - - -
5 SNP Candidate
(Caithness Sutherland & Ross)
- - - -
6 SNP Candidate
(Argyll & Bute)
- - - -
7 SNP Candidate
(Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch)
- - - -
8 SNP Candidate
(Inverness & Nairn)
- - - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 57.12%
Labour 16.28%
Conservative 11.06%
Liberal Democrat 9.22%
Scottish Christian 4.35%
UKIP 1.25%
Green 1.13%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(706 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Highlands and Islands Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Argyll & Bute SNP (50.6%) SNP (58.7%)
Caithness Sutherland & Ross SNP (48.4%) SNP (60.2%)
Inverness & Nairn SNP (51.5%) SNP (59.9%)
Moray SNP (58.8%) SNP (62.1%)
Nah h-Eilanan an Iar SNP (65.3%) SNP (68.3%)
Orkney Islands Liberal Democrat (35.7%) SNP (40.4%)
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat (47.5%) SNP (32.2%)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch SNP (46.2%) SNP (58.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 41.02%
Labour 16.37%
Conservative 12.13%
Liberal Democrat 12.10%
Green 11.14%
UKIP 5.00%
Scottish Christian 2.95%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(666 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Highlands and Islands List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 47.53% 42.77%
Labour 14.46% 13.33%
Conservative 11.64% 12.09%
Liberal Democrat 12.14% 11.94%
Green 5.07% 9.46%
UKIP 1.88% 4.90%
Christian Party 1.98% 1.78%
Others 1.93% 1.74%
Pensioners 1.55% 1.39%
Scottish Socialist 0.28% 0.39%
BNP 0.63% 0.10%
Solidarity 0.11% 0.06%
Socialist Labour 0.79% 0.05%
Independant 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted Highlands and Islands additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour (Rhoda Grant)
2 Conservative Conservative (Douglas Ross)
3 Labour Liberal Democrat (Jamie Stone)
4 SNP Green (John Finnie)
5 SNP Labour (David Stewart)
6 Conservative Conservative (Edward Mountain)
7 SNP Liberal Democrat (Kate Stephen)

North East Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 10 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-1) 2 (-1) 3 (+1) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 10 (-1) 2 (-1) 3 (+1) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)

SNP Conservative Labour Green Liberal Democrat
1 SNP Candidate
(Angus North & Mearns)
Alex Johnstone
(North East Scotland list)
Jenny Marra
(North East Scotland list)
Maggie Chapman
(North East Scotland list)
Mike Rumbles
(North East Scotland list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeenshire East)
Alexander Burnett
(North East Scotland list)
Lewis MacDonald
(North East Scotland list)
- -
3 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeenshire West)
Ross Thomson
(North East Scotland list)
- - -
4 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeen South & North Kincardine)
- - - -
5 SNP Candidate
(Angus South)
- - - -
6 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeen Donside)
- - - -
7 SNP Candidate
(Aberdeen Central)
- - - -
8 SNP Candidate
(Dundee City East)
- - - -
9 SNP Candidate
(Banffshire & Buchan Coast)
- - - -
10 SNP Candidate
(Dundee City West)
- - - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 60.20%
Labour 17.92%
Conservative 16.03%
Liberal Democrat 4.26%
Green 1.38%
UKIP 0.86%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1088 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted North East Scotland Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Aberdeen Central SNP (40.0%) SNP (55.6%)
Aberdeen Donside SNP (55.3%) SNP (62.6%)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine SNP (41.7%) SNP (54.0%)
Aberdeenshire East SNP (64.5%) SNP (66.7%)
Aberdeenshire West SNP (42.6%) SNP (56.4%)
Angus North & Mearns SNP (54.8%) SNP (61.3%)
Angus South SNP (58.5%) SNP (61.5%)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast SNP (67.2%) SNP (67.1%)
Dundee City East SNP (64.2%) SNP (67.0%)
Dundee City West SNP (57.6%) SNP (64.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 54.52%
Labour 15.56%
Conservative 14.79%
Green 6.62%
Liberal Democrat 4.96%
UKIP 3.07%
TUSC 2.36%
Scottish Socialist 0.28%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1073 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted North East Scotland List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 52.71% 52.41%
Conservative 14.11% 14.85%
Labour 16.44% 13.78%
Green 3.90% 6.38%
Liberal Democrat 6.81% 5.86%
UKIP 0.93% 2.74%
Pensioners 1.66% 1.52%
Christian Party 0.81% 0.74%
Scottish Socialist 0.42% 0.72%
Independant 0.44% 0.41%
Others 0.42% 0.38%
BNP 0.72% 0.12%
Solidarity 0.11% 0.06%
Socialist Labour 0.55% 0.04%

Predicted North East Scotland additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Conservative (Alex Johnstone)
2 Conservative Labour (Jenny Marra)
3 Labour Conservative (Alexander Burnett)
4 Conservative Labour (Lewis MacDonald)
5 Liberal Democrat Green (Maggie Chapman)
6 Labour Liberal Democrat (Mike Rumbles)
7 SNP Conservative (Ross Thomson)

West Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 10 (+4) 0 (-4) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-2) 4 (+1) 2 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 10 (+2) 4 (-3) 2 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)

SNP Labour Conservative Green
1 SNP Candidate
(Greenock & Inverclyde)
Jackie Baillie
(West Scotland list)
Jackson Carlaw
(West Scotland list)
Ross Greer
(West Scotland list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Cunninghame North)
Neil Bibby
(West Scotland list)
Jamie Greene
(West Scotland list)
-
3 SNP Candidate
(Renfrewshire South)
Mary Fee
(West Scotland list)
- -
4 SNP Candidate
(Clydebank & Milngavie)
Ken MacIntosh
(West Scotland list)
- -
5 SNP Candidate
(Cunninghame South)
- - -
6 SNP Candidate
(Paisley)
- - -
7 SNP Candidate
(Renfrewshire North & West)
- - -
8 SNP Candidate
(Strathkelvin & Bearsden)
- - -
9 SNP Candidate
(Eastwood)
- - -
10 SNP Candidate
(Dumbarton)
- - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 58.75%
Labour 24.29%
Conservative 11.78%
Liberal Democrat 2.45%
UKIP 2.37%
Green 1.58%
Scottish Christian 0.93%
Scottish Socialist 0.87%
TUSC 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(1059 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted West Scotland Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Clydebank & Milngavie SNP (43.3%) SNP (57.4%)
Cunninghame North SNP (52.6%) SNP (61.3%)
Cunninghame South SNP (49.8%) SNP (60.6%)
Dumbarton Labour (44.1%) SNP (53.6%)
Eastwood Labour (39.7%) SNP (45.4%)
Greenock & Inverclyde Labour (43.9%) SNP (57.1%)
Paisley SNP (42.6%) SNP (57.2%)
Renfrewshire North & West SNP (41.9%) SNP (55.6%)
Renfrewshire South Labour (48.1%) SNP (54.8%)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden SNP (42.2%) SNP (56.5%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 51.35%
Labour 25.54%
Conservative 11.08%
Green 6.25%
Liberal Democrat 2.79%
UKIP 2.36%
Scottish Christian 0.83%
Solidarity 0.11%
Scottish Socialist 0.07%
TUSC 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
(1054 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted West Scotland List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 41.54% 46.49%
Labour 32.77% 25.41%
Conservative 12.75% 12.65%
Green 2.98% 5.59%
Liberal Democrat 3.24% 3.09%
UKIP 0.71% 2.15%
Pensioners 1.69% 1.63%
Scottish Socialist 0.62% 0.94%
Christian Party 0.87% 0.84%
Others 0.73% 0.70%
Independant 0.16% 0.16%
Solidarity 0.16% 0.15%
BNP 0.77% 0.13%
Socialist Labour 1.01% 0.07%

Predicted West Scotland additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Conservative Labour (Jackie Baillie)
2 Labour Labour (Neil Bibby)
3 Conservative Conservative (Jackson Carlaw)
4 SNP Labour (Mary Fee)
5 Labour Labour (Ken MacIntosh)
6 SNP Conservative (Jamie Greene)
7 Labour Green (Ross Greer)

South Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+5) 0 (-2) 0 (-3) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-4) 3 (+1) 3 (+3) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
Total Seats 9 (+1) 3 (-1) 3 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c)

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat
1 SNP Candidate
(Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley)
Iain Gray
(South Scotland list)
John Scott
(South Scotland list)
Jim Hume
(South Scotland list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire)
Claudia Beamish
(South Scotland list)
Oliver Mundell
(South Scotland list)
-
3 SNP Candidate
(East Lothian)
Colin Smyth
(South Scotland list)
Rachael Hamilton
(South Scotland list)
-
4 SNP Candidate
(Dumfriesshire)
- - -
5 SNP Candidate
(Clydesdale)
- - -
6 SNP Candidate
(Galloway & West Dumfries)
- - -
7 SNP Candidate
(Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale)
- - -
8 SNP Candidate
(Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley)
- - -
9 SNP Candidate
(Ayr)
- - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 51.12%
Conservative 22.03%
Labour 19.78%
Liberal Democrat 5.13%
UKIP 0.73%
Green 0.46%
TUSC 0.00%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(896 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted South Scotland Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Ayr Conservative (38.9%) SNP (46.8%)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley SNP (46.2%) SNP (54.1%)
Clydesdale SNP (49.9%) SNP (57.4%)
Dumfriesshire Labour (39.6%) SNP (42.7%)
East Lothian Labour (39.0%) SNP (50.2%)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire Conservative (44.9%) SNP (41.5%)
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative (36.9%) SNP (46.2%)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley SNP (53.2%) SNP (57.9%)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale SNP (43.5%) SNP (53.3%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 46.99%
Labour 18.43%
Conservative 15.40%
Liberal Democrat 7.73%
Green 5.51%
UKIP 4.95%
Scottish Pensioners 1.59%
Scottish Socialist 0.11%
TUSC 0.00%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
CISTA 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(909 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted South Scotland List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 40.98% 43.83%
Labour 25.32% 18.87%
Conservative 19.49% 18.43%
Liberal Democrat 5.41% 6.64%
Green 3.06% 5.26%
UKIP 1.16% 4.04%
Pensioners 1.58% 1.50%
Christian Party 0.69% 0.65%
Scottish Socialist 0.25% 0.41%
Solidarity 0.29% 0.17%
BNP 0.72% 0.12%
Socialist Labour 1.04% 0.07%
Independant 0.00% 0.00%
Others 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted South Scotland additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour (Iain Gray)
2 SNP Conservative (John Scott)
3 SNP Labour (Claudia Beamish)
4 Labour Conservative (Oliver Mundell)
5 SNP Liberal Democrat (Jim Hume)
6 Liberal Democrat Labour (Colin Smyth)
7 SNP Conservative (Rachael Hamilton)

Glasgow

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+4) 0 (-4) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-2) 5 (+2) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (n/c)
Total Seats 9 (+2) 5 (-2) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (n/c)

SNP Labour Green Conservative
1 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Pollok)
Anas Sarwar
(Glasgow list)
Patrick Harvie
(Glasgow list)
Adam Tomkins
(Glasgow list)
2 SNP Candidate
(Rutherglen)
Johann Lamont
(Glasgow list)
- -
3 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Kelvin)
James Kelly
(Glasgow list)
- -
4 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Cathcart)
Pauline McNeill
(Glasgow list)
- -
5 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Anniesland)
Bill Butler
(Glasgow list)
- -
6 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Shettleston)
- - -
7 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn)
- - -
8 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Provan)
- - -
9 SNP Candidate
(Glasgow Southside)
- - -

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 56.49%
Labour 25.72%
Conservative 9.52%
Liberal Democrat 3.71%
Green 3.52%
Scottish Socialist 0.94%
TUSC 0.89%
UKIP 0.85%
CISTA 0.77%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1045 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Glasgow Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Glasgow Anniesland SNP (43.2%) SNP (56.4%)
Glasgow Cathcart SNP (45.5%) SNP (57.2%)
Glasgow Kelvin SNP (43.3%) SNP (56.4%)
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn Labour (48.1%) SNP (56.5%)
Glasgow Pollok Labour (47.5%) SNP (57.9%)
Glasgow Provan Labour (52.3%) SNP (56.5%)
Glasgow Shettleston SNP (47.8%) SNP (59.4%)
Glasgow Southside SNP (54.4%) SNP (62.3%)
Rutherglen Labour (46.1%) SNP (54.1%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 46.49%
Labour 26.14%
Green 10.08%
Conservative 9.64%
Liberal Democrat 3.78%
UKIP 2.56%
CISTA 1.87%
Scottish Socialist 1.11%
TUSC 0.93%
Solidarity 0.12%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(1047 samples over 12 polls)
Predicted Glasgow List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 39.82% 42.43%
Labour 34.99% 26.09%
Green 5.97% 9.81%
Conservative 6.11% 8.05%
Others 4.45% 4.22%
Liberal Democrat 2.55% 3.15%
UKIP 0.54% 1.97%
Pensioners 1.80% 1.71%
Scottish Socialist 0.65% 1.48%
Christian Party 0.72% 0.68%
BNP 1.16% 0.19%
Independant 0.16% 0.15%
Socialist Labour 1.09% 0.07%
Solidarity 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted Glasgow additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour (Anas Sarwar)
2 SNP Labour (Johann Lamont)
3 Conservative Green (Patrick Harvie)
4 Green Labour (James Kelly)
5 Labour Conservative (Adam Tomkins)
6 SNP Labour (Pauline McNeill)
7 Labour Labour (Bill Butler)

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