Sunday 6 September 2015

Holyrood 2016 result predictions given polling (2015-09-06 update)

Current polling:

Moving average of latest polls for constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 53.18%
Labour 22.79%
Conservative 12.91%
Liberal Democrat 5.19%
Green 2.10%
UKIP 1.48%
CISTA 0.23%
Scottish Socialist 0.22%
(15958 samples over 16 polls)

Scotland-wide Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016


Moving average of latest polls for regional list vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 46.30%
Labour 22.07%
Conservative 12.58%
Green 8.76%
Liberal Democrat 5.64%
UKIP 2.69%
Scottish Socialist 1.23%
Scottish Christian 0.36%
Solidarity 0.16%
Socialist Labour 0.12%
Scottish Pensioners 0.12%
CISTA 0.11%
(15911 samples over 16 polls)

Scotland-wide Regional (Second vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Scotland Overall Summary:

Predicted outcome of Holyrood 2016 election given current polling:
SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green Margo MacDonald Billy Fox
Constituency Seats 72 (+19) 0 (-15) 0 (-3) 0 (-2) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)
List Seats 1 (-15) 26 (+4) 13 (+1) 6 (+3) 10 (+8) 0 (-1) 0 (n/c)
Total Seats 73 (+4) 26 (-11) 13 (-2) 6 (+1) 10 (+8) 0 (-1) 1 (+1)

Lothian

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green Margo MacDonald
Constituency Seats 9 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (n/c) 3 (n/c) 1 (-1) 1 (+1) 2 (+1) 0 (-1)
Total Seats 9 (+1) 3 (-1) 1 (-1) 1 (+1) 2 (+1) 0 (-1)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 51.21%
Labour 26.25%
Conservative 12.75%
Liberal Democrat 5.18%
Green 3.72%
UKIP 1.31%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
(555 samples over 5 polls)
Lothian Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Predicted Lothian Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Almond Valley SNP (54.3%) SNP (59.1%)
Edinburgh Central SNP (32.7%) SNP (48.3%)
Edinburgh Eastern SNP (47.4%) SNP (56.1%)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith Labour (41.6%) SNP (52.3%)
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP (37.3%) SNP (49.7%)
Edinburgh Southern SNP (29.4%) SNP (46.4%)
Edinburgh Western SNP (35.8%) SNP (50.2%)
Linlithgow SNP (49.8%) SNP (56.7%)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh SNP (47.2%) SNP (55.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Lothian regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 42.18%
Labour 21.79%
Green 14.00%
Conservative 9.84%
Liberal Democrat 7.91%
UKIP 4.23%
CISTA 0.65%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(574 samples over 5 polls)

Lothian Regional (Second Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016
Predicted Lothian List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 39.18% 40.94%
Labour 24.91% 20.97%
Green 7.59% 14.35%
Conservative 11.66% 10.66%
Liberal Democrat 5.50% 6.82%
UKIP 0.64% 3.01%
Pensioners 1.14% 1.11%
BNP 0.70% 0.68%
Scottish Socialist 0.42% 0.61%
Others 0.44% 0.43%
Christian Party 0.32% 0.32%
Solidarity 0.12% 0.06%
Socialist Labour 0.59% 0.04%
Margo MacDonald 6.79% 0.00%

Predicted Lothian additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour
2 Conservative Green
3 Labour Conservative
4 Green Labour
5 Margo MacDonald Green
6 Labour Labour
7 Conservative Liberal Democrat

West Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 10 (+4) 0 (-4) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-2) 4 (+1) 2 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 10 (+2) 4 (-3) 2 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 58.16%
Labour 21.95%
Conservative 13.52%
Liberal Democrat 2.52%
UKIP 2.43%
Green 1.65%
Scottish Socialist 0.87%
(453 samples over 5 polls)
West Scotland Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016
Predicted West Scotland Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Clydebank & Milngavie SNP (43.3%) SNP (57.4%)
Cunninghame North SNP (52.6%) SNP (61.6%)
Cunninghame South SNP (49.8%) SNP (60.6%)
Dumbarton Labour (44.1%) SNP (53.6%)
Eastwood Labour (39.7%) SNP (45.9%)
Greenock & Inverclyde Labour (43.9%) SNP (57.0%)
Paisley SNP (42.6%) SNP (57.2%)
Renfrewshire North & West SNP (41.9%) SNP (56.0%)
Renfrewshire South Labour (48.1%) SNP (54.8%)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden SNP (42.2%) SNP (56.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for West Scotland regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 48.77%
Labour 22.16%
Conservative 12.70%
Green 9.23%
Liberal Democrat 3.26%
UKIP 2.96%
Scottish Christian 0.92%
Scottish Socialist 0.14%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
(453 samples over 5 polls)
West Scotland Regional (Second Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Predicted West Scotland List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 41.54% 45.02%
Labour 32.77% 24.14%
Conservative 12.75% 12.49%
Green 2.98% 7.42%
Liberal Democrat 3.24% 3.30%
UKIP 0.71% 2.46%
Pensioners 1.69% 1.63%
Scottish Socialist 0.62% 0.95%
Christian Party 0.87% 0.84%
BNP 0.77% 0.74%
Others 0.73% 0.70%
Independant 0.16% 0.16%
Solidarity 0.16% 0.09%
Socialist Labour 1.01% 0.07%

Predicted West Scotland additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Conservative Labour
2 Labour Conservative
3 Conservative Labour
4 SNP Labour
5 Labour Green
6 SNP Conservative
7 Labour Labour

South Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+5) 0 (-2) 0 (-3) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-4) 3 (+1) 3 (+3) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
Total Seats 9 (+1) 3 (-1) 3 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c)

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 50.75%
Conservative 26.32%
Labour 15.74%
Liberal Democrat 5.84%
UKIP 0.42%
Green 0.13%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
(351 samples over 5 polls)
South Scotland Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Predicted South Scotland Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Ayr Conservative (38.9%) SNP (47.4%)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley SNP (46.2%) SNP (54.0%)
Clydesdale SNP (49.9%) SNP (57.4%)
Dumfriesshire Labour (39.6%) SNP (42.8%)
East Lothian Labour (39.0%) SNP (50.1%)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire Conservative (44.9%) SNP (42.1%)
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative (36.9%) SNP (46.7%)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley SNP (53.2%) SNP (57.6%)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale SNP (43.5%) SNP (53.4%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for South Scotland regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 48.84%
Conservative 16.01%
Labour 14.49%
Liberal Democrat 9.71%
UKIP 6.30%
Green 3.50%
Scottish Pensioners 1.59%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(377 samples over 5 polls)
South Scotland Regional (Second Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Predicted South Scotland List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 40.98% 44.78%
Conservative 19.49% 17.41%
Labour 25.32% 17.32%
Liberal Democrat 5.41% 7.62%
UKIP 1.16% 4.76%
Green 3.06% 4.66%
Pensioners 1.58% 1.51%
BNP 0.72% 0.69%
Christian Party 0.69% 0.66%
Scottish Socialist 0.25% 0.35%
Solidarity 0.29% 0.16%
Socialist Labour 1.04% 0.07%
Independant 0.00% 0.00%
Others 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted South Scotland additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Conservative
2 SNP Labour
3 SNP Conservative
4 Labour Labour
5 SNP Liberal Democrat
6 Liberal Democrat Conservative
7 SNP Labour

Central Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+3) 0 (-3) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-3) 5 (+2) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 9 (n/c) 5 (-1) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 55.75%
Labour 24.63%
Conservative 10.15%
Liberal Democrat 3.79%
Green 2.47%
UKIP 0.96%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
(489 samples over 5 polls)
Central Scotland Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Predicted Central Scotland Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Airdrie & Shotts SNP (50.2%) SNP (60.3%)
Coatbridge & Chryston Labour (52.2%) SNP (55.4%)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth SNP (53.8%) SNP (62.1%)
East Kilbride SNP (48.0%) SNP (58.6%)
Falkirk East SNP (50.8%) SNP (60.4%)
Falkirk West SNP (55.3%) SNP (62.6%)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse SNP (48.1%) SNP (59.0%)
Motherwell & Wishaw Labour (43.8%) SNP (53.5%)
Uddingston & Bellshill Labour (46.1%) SNP (56.7%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Central Scotland regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 51.29%
Labour 28.34%
Conservative 7.04%
Green 6.71%
UKIP 3.48%
Liberal Democrat 2.03%
Scottish Socialist 1.03%
Solidarity 0.09%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(501 samples over 5 polls)
Central Scotland Regional (Second Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Predicted Central Scotland List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 46.35% 48.52%
Labour 35.31% 28.11%
Conservative 6.37% 6.56%
Green 2.41% 5.60%
UKIP 0.54% 2.46%
Pensioners 2.48% 2.40%
Liberal Democrat 1.42% 1.73%
Christian Party 1.36% 1.32%
Scottish Socialist 0.35% 1.01%
BNP 0.95% 0.92%
Others 0.81% 0.78%
Independant 0.35% 0.34%
Solidarity 0.24% 0.18%
Socialist Labour 1.06% 0.07%

Predicted Central Scotland additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour
2 Labour Labour
3 SNP Labour
4 Conservative Labour
5 Labour Conservative
6 SNP Labour
7 SNP Green

Mid Scotland and Fife

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-1) 3 (n/c) 2 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 9 (n/c) 3 (-1) 2 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 53.03%
Labour 23.06%
Conservative 13.52%
Liberal Democrat 5.08%
UKIP 2.11%
Green 1.12%
CISTA 0.88%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
(417 samples over 5 polls)
Mid Scotland and Fife Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane SNP (48.3%) SNP (57.5%)
Cowdenbeath Labour (46.5%) SNP (54.1%)
Dunfermline SNP (37.6%) SNP (52.6%)
Kirkcaldy SNP (45.2%) SNP (56.3%)
Mid Fife & Glenrothes SNP (52.3%) SNP (58.7%)
North East Fife SNP (37.2%) SNP (50.7%)
Perthshire North SNP (60.8%) SNP (62.2%)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire SNP (51.5%) SNP (58.0%)
Stirling SNP (48.9%) SNP (57.0%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Mid Scotland and Fife regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 49.12%
Labour 21.71%
Conservative 15.13%
Green 5.34%
Liberal Democrat 5.25%
UKIP 2.64%
Socialist Labour 1.10%
Solidarity 0.94%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(422 samples over 5 polls)
Mid Scotland and Fife Regional (Second Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 45.20% 46.06%
Labour 25.03% 20.36%
Conservative 14.12% 14.07%
Green 4.23% 6.54%
Liberal Democrat 5.85% 5.51%
UKIP 1.10% 2.80%
Pensioners 1.59% 1.48%
BNP 0.67% 0.62%
Socialist Labour 0.69% 0.58%
Independant 0.57% 0.53%
Solidarity 0.08% 0.50%
Scottish Socialist 0.32% 0.44%
Christian Party 0.30% 0.28%
Others 0.25% 0.23%

Predicted Mid Scotland and Fife additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Conservative Labour
2 Labour Conservative
3 Labour Labour
4 Conservative Conservative
5 Labour Labour
6 Liberal Democrat Green
7 SNP Liberal Democrat

Highlands and Islands

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green Billy Fox
Constituency Seats 7 (+1) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (-2) 0 (n/c) 1 (+1)
List Seats 0 (-3) 2 (n/c) 1 (-1) 2 (+2) 2 (+2) 0 (n/c)
Total Seats 7 (-2) 2 (n/c) 1 (-1) 2 (n/c) 2 (+2) 1 (+1)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 55.11%
Labour 18.49%
Liberal Democrat 11.97%
Conservative 9.91%
UKIP 1.39%
Green 1.25%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
(312 samples over 5 polls)
Highlands and Islands Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016
Predicted Highlands and Islands Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Argyll & Bute SNP (50.6%) SNP (57.7%)
Caithness Sutherland & Ross SNP (48.4%) SNP (58.9%)
Inverness & Nairn SNP (51.5%) SNP (58.6%)
Moray SNP (58.8%) SNP (61.2%)
Nah h-Eilanan an Iar SNP (65.3%) SNP (66.5%)
Orkney Islands Liberal Democrat (35.7%) SNP (39.3%)
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat (47.5%) Billy Fox (31.3%)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch SNP (46.2%) SNP (57.4%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Highlands and Islands regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 32.04%
Labour 17.55%
Green 15.85%
Liberal Democrat 15.48%
Conservative 12.50%
UKIP 4.23%
Scottish Christian 2.82%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
(288 samples over 5 polls)
Highlands and Islands Regional (Second Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016


Predicted Highlands and Islands List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 47.53% 38.12%
Labour 14.46% 14.06%
Liberal Democrat 12.14% 13.51%
Green 5.07% 12.35%
Conservative 11.64% 11.46%
UKIP 1.88% 4.57%
Christian Party 1.98% 1.77%
Others 1.93% 1.73%
Pensioners 1.55% 1.38%
BNP 0.63% 0.57%
Scottish Socialist 0.28% 0.38%
Solidarity 0.11% 0.06%
Socialist Labour 0.79% 0.05%
Independant 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted Highlands and Islands additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour
2 Conservative Liberal Democrat
3 Labour Green
4 SNP Conservative
5 SNP Labour
6 Conservative Liberal Democrat
7 SNP Green

North East Scotland

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 10 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 1 (n/c) 2 (-1) 2 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)
Total Seats 11 (n/c) 2 (-1) 2 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 1 (+1)

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 63.47%
Labour 17.71%
Conservative 14.32%
Liberal Democrat 2.80%
Green 1.18%
UKIP 0.78%
Scottish Socialist 0.00%
(459 samples over 5 polls)
North East Scotland Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016
Predicted North East Scotland Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Aberdeen Central SNP (40.0%) SNP (57.4%)
Aberdeen Donside SNP (55.3%) SNP (64.3%)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine SNP (41.7%) SNP (55.9%)
Aberdeenshire East SNP (64.5%) SNP (69.0%)
Aberdeenshire West SNP (42.6%) SNP (58.8%)
Angus North & Mearns SNP (54.8%) SNP (63.9%)
Angus South SNP (58.5%) SNP (63.8%)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast SNP (67.2%) SNP (69.5%)
Dundee City East SNP (64.2%) SNP (68.9%)
Dundee City West SNP (57.6%) SNP (66.4%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for North East Scotland regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 57.42%
Labour 13.85%
Conservative 12.46%
Green 8.19%
UKIP 4.78%
Liberal Democrat 2.77%
Scottish Socialist 0.52%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(456 samples over 5 polls)
North East Scotland Regional (Second Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016
Predicted North East Scotland List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 52.71% 53.59%
Labour 16.44% 13.12%
Conservative 14.11% 12.70%
Green 3.90% 7.60%
Liberal Democrat 6.81% 4.75%
UKIP 0.93% 3.60%
Pensioners 1.66% 1.52%
Scottish Socialist 0.42% 0.83%
Christian Party 0.81% 0.74%
BNP 0.72% 0.66%
Independant 0.44% 0.41%
Others 0.42% 0.38%
Solidarity 0.11% 0.06%
Socialist Labour 0.55% 0.04%

Predicted North East Scotland additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour
2 Conservative Conservative
3 Labour Green
4 Conservative Labour
5 Liberal Democrat Conservative
6 Labour SNP
7 SNP Liberal Democrat

Glasgow

SNP Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Green
Constituency Seats 9 (+4) 0 (-4) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c)
List Seats 0 (-2) 4 (+1) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 2 (+1)
Total Seats 9 (+2) 4 (-3) 1 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 2 (+1)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow constituency vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 53.07%
Labour 27.44%
Conservative 9.88%
Liberal Democrat 3.97%
Green 3.51%
Scottish Socialist 0.94%
UKIP 0.94%
CISTA 0.85%
(426 samples over 5 polls)
Glasgow Constituency (First Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016
Predicted Glasgow Constituency results
Constituency 2011 Winner 2016 Prediction
Glasgow Anniesland SNP (43.2%) SNP (54.9%)
Glasgow Cathcart SNP (45.5%) SNP (55.7%)
Glasgow Kelvin SNP (43.3%) SNP (54.9%)
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn Labour (48.1%) SNP (54.8%)
Glasgow Pollok Labour (47.5%) SNP (56.2%)
Glasgow Provan Labour (52.3%) SNP (54.7%)
Glasgow Shettleston SNP (47.8%) SNP (57.8%)
Glasgow Southside SNP (54.4%) SNP (60.8%)
Rutherglen Labour (46.1%) SNP (52.6%)

Moving average of poll subsamples for Glasgow regional vote:
Party Vote Share (%)
SNP 41.01%
Labour 25.37%
Green 12.95%
Conservative 10.69%
Liberal Democrat 4.51%
UKIP 3.89%
Scottish Socialist 1.64%
Solidarity 0.00%
Socialist Labour 0.00%
Scottish Pensioners 0.00%
Scottish Christian 0.00%
(443 samples over 5 polls)
Glasgow Constituency (Second Vote) Voting Intention for Holyrood 2016
Predicted Glasgow List Vote share
Party 2011 List vote (%) Predicted List vote (%)
SNP 39.82% 39.04%
Labour 34.99% 25.75%
Green 5.97% 11.75%
Conservative 6.11% 8.01%
Others 4.45% 4.10%
Liberal Democrat 2.55% 3.44%
UKIP 0.54% 2.61%
Scottish Socialist 0.65% 1.69%
Pensioners 1.80% 1.66%
BNP 1.16% 1.07%
Christian Party 0.72% 0.66%
Independant 0.16% 0.15%
Socialist Labour 1.09% 0.07%
Solidarity 0.00% 0.00%

Predicted Glasgow additional members:
# 2011 Result 2016 Prediction
1 Labour Labour
2 SNP Labour
3 Conservative Green
4 Green Labour
5 Labour Conservative
6 SNP Labour
7 Labour Green

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