Tuesday 5 May 2015

My last Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and Scottish seat predictions

Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election

The chart is made from 249 polls with a cumulative sample count of 75912.

Individual points are poll results. Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th. Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll. The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average. The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.


Scotland seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats Change
Conservative 1 0 0 0 -1
Labour 34 7 0 7 -34
Liberal Democrat 8 3 0 3 -8
SNP 0 6 43 49 +43

Scotland vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier Party incumbency bonus % Candidate incumbency bonus %
Conservative 16.74% 16.05% 0.96x 0.50% 0.50%
Green 0.68% 2.27% 3.33x 2.50% 2.50%
Labour 42.00% 25.70% 0.61x 1.00% 1.00%
Liberal Democrat 18.88% 6.82% 0.36x 5.00% 5.00%
SNP 19.93% 45.98% 2.31x 0.00% 0.00%
UKIP 0.70% 2.78% 3.98x 2.50% 2.50%

Tactical voting factors:

Party Vote Source Tactical Target Party Tactical voting likelihood %
Labour Liberal Democrat 36.84%
Labour Conservative 19.09%
UKIP Labour 25.00%
UKIP Liberal Democrat 50.00%
UKIP Conservative 75.00%
Liberal Democrat Labour 28.02%
Liberal Democrat Conservative 36.94%
Conservative Labour 19.90%
Conservative Liberal Democrat 47.61%

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat SNP 2010 Result My 2015 Prediction Bookie 2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North 9.53% 31.77% 4.84% 51.45% Labour SNP SNP
Aberdeen South 18.71% 34.85% 8.68% 32.17% Labour Labour SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 20.82% 7.89% 28.40% 39.20% Liberal Democrat SNP SNP
Airdrie & Shotts 6.90% 39.15% 1.55% 50.93% Labour SNP SNP
Angus 26.60% 6.03% 1.74% 64.55% SNP SNP SNP
Argyll & Bute 12.14% 8.84% 28.24% 43.96% Liberal Democrat SNP SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 20.82% 33.98% 2.27% 42.88% Labour SNP SNP
Ayrshire Central 15.87% 35.37% 3.15% 44.58% Labour SNP SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran 11.01% 30.79% 2.39% 54.87% Labour SNP SNP
Banff & Buchan 23.32% 4.95% 1.85% 67.97% SNP SNP SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 25.28% 6.89% 37.09% 27.32% Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 7.22% 10.52% 30.91% 48.90% Liberal Democrat SNP SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill 6.51% 46.33% 1.73% 45.02% Labour Labour SNP
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 6.21% 36.28% 2.25% 53.71% Labour SNP SNP
Dumfries & Galloway 32.61% 24.69% 4.45% 34.72% Labour SNP SNP
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale 34.10% 17.23% 4.99% 37.25% Conservative SNP SNP
Dunbartonshire East 10.92% 16.32% 34.92% 35.38% Liberal Democrat SNP SNP
Dunbartonshire West 5.93% 39.92% 1.54% 46.56% Labour SNP SNP
Dundee East 8.60% 18.71% 2.02% 64.22% SNP SNP SNP
Dundee West 6.34% 27.83% 2.89% 60.64% Labour SNP SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West 6.64% 44.80% 11.68% 31.38% Labour Labour SNP
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 9.15% 32.72% 2.37% 48.81% Labour SNP SNP
East Lothian 15.02% 34.23% 4.36% 36.82% Labour SNP SNP
Edinburgh East 7.64% 28.35% 4.60% 42.82% Labour SNP SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith 15.35% 31.59% 7.46% 34.35% Labour SNP SNP
Edinburgh South 19.94% 33.44% 9.17% 30.04% Labour Labour SNP
Edinburgh South West 19.78% 31.64% 4.58% 35.53% Labour SNP SNP
Edinburgh West 13.80% 12.71% 36.90% 36.00% Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat SNP
Falkirk 7.00% 27.58% 2.17% 56.73% Labour SNP SNP
Fife North East 13.77% 8.00% 34.01% 38.82% Liberal Democrat SNP SNP
Glasgow Central 5.10% 34.88% 3.55% 41.83% Labour SNP SNP
Glasgow East 3.58% 36.94% 1.10% 51.53% Labour SNP SNP
Glasgow North 5.58% 34.87% 6.65% 38.08% Labour SNP SNP
Glasgow North East 4.39% 49.06% 1.66% 38.68% Labour Labour Labour
Glasgow North West 7.48% 38.40% 3.64% 40.33% Labour SNP SNP
Glasgow South 8.77% 33.80% 2.49% 46.58% Labour SNP SNP
Glasgow South West 5.26% 37.87% 2.09% 47.99% Labour SNP SNP
Glenrothes 5.37% 40.43% 1.93% 48.58% Labour SNP SNP
Gordon 10.24% 10.97% 26.48% 47.28% Liberal Democrat SNP SNP
Inverclyde 6.13% 29.57% 0.47% 61.37% Labour SNP SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 8.30% 10.71% 25.25% 46.32% Liberal Democrat SNP SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun 9.92% 33.06% 1.74% 54.62% Labour SNP SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 7.37% 43.46% 2.81% 40.42% Labour Labour SNP
Lanark & Hamilton East 10.91% 34.58% 2.78% 45.92% Labour SNP SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East 8.61% 32.54% 3.13% 55.05% Labour SNP SNP
Livingston 7.40% 30.75% 2.58% 53.57% Labour SNP SNP
Midlothian 8.69% 32.38% 4.24% 45.40% Labour SNP SNP
Moray 25.60% 5.89% 2.30% 63.70% SNP SNP SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw 6.35% 41.48% 1.86% 47.56% Labour SNP SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) 2.33% 14.99% 1.34% 72.80% SNP SNP SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire 12.95% 24.76% 2.44% 52.48% Labour SNP SNP
Orkney & Shetland 5.67% 4.43% 47.76% 26.18% Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 11.40% 38.22% 2.78% 44.74% Labour SNP SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 6.48% 39.91% 1.64% 47.83% Labour SNP SNP
Perth & North Perthshire 23.93% 5.92% 2.05% 66.61% SNP SNP SNP
Renfrewshire East 24.70% 33.90% 2.83% 36.37% Labour SNP SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber 7.07% 6.74% 33.89% 42.86% Liberal Democrat SNP SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West 7.77% 44.46% 3.27% 38.92% Labour Labour Labour
Stirling 17.79% 31.52% 3.64% 38.42% Labour SNP SNP

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