Wednesday 18 March 2015

Stats extracted from latest YouGov poll of Scotland.


Stats extracted from latest YouGov poll of Scotland (2015-03-10 to 2015-03-12):


I've taken the inverse to see things from the perspective of what a 2015 Westminster vote intention predicts about the voter, rather than how an aspect of the voter affects the way they are likely to vote. Eg:

The published stats say things like:

  • 1% of Yes voters intend to vote Conservative.
  • 33% of No voters intend to vote Conservative.

From this we can infer:

  • If you intend to vote Conservative there is a 97.1% chance that you voted No.

If you plan to vote Conservative:


  • 97.1% chance you voted No.
  • 97.3% chance you would vote No now.
  • 96% chance you'll vote Conservative in Holyrood.
  • 57.1% chance you're female.
  • You were most likely born outside UK (38.7% chance).
  • Your mean age is 47.6 years.
  • 74% chance you think Labour is currently divided.
  • 57% chance you think SNP is currently united.
  • 70.1% chance you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing badly as First Minister
  • 62.9% chance you think Jim Murphy is doing badly as Scottish Labour leader.

If you plan to vote Labour:


  • 82.4% chance you voted No.
  • 83.0% chance you would vote No now.
  • 87% chance you'll vote Labour in Holyrood.
  • 50% chance you're male.
  • You were most likely born Elsewhere in UK (43.4% chance).
  • Your mean age is 43.9 years.
  • 40% chance you think Labour is currently divided.
  • 51% chance you think SNP is currently united.
  • 53.9% chance you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing badly as First Minister.
  • 65.5% chance you think Jim Murphy is doing well as Scottish Labour leader.

If you plan to vote Lib Dem:


  • 85.7% chance you voted No.
  • 87.5% chance you would vote No now.
  • 50% chance you're female.
  • You were most likely born outside UK (57.9% chance).
  • Your mean age is 35.9 years.

If you plan to vote SNP:


  • 87.6% chance you voted Yes.
  • 92.4% chance you would vote Yes now.
  • 93% chance you'll vote SNP in Holyrood.
  • 51.6% chance you're male.
  • You were most likely born in Scotland (43.6% chance).
  • Your mean age is 42.4 years.
  • 77% chance you think Labour is currently divided.
  • 93% chance you think SNP is currently united.
  • 98.0% chance you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing well as First Minister.
  • 86.4% chance you think Jim Murphy is doing badly as Scottish Labour leader.

If you plan to vote Green:


  • 60% chance you voted Yes.
  • 66.7% chance you would vote Yes now.
  • 50% chance you're female.
  • You were most likely born Elsewhere in UK (55.6% chance).
  • Your mean age is 26.2 years.

If you plan to vote UKIP:


  • 100% chance you voted No.
  • 100% chance you would vote No now.
  • 75% chance you're male.
  • You were most likely born outside UK (50% chance)!
  • Your mean age is 33.5 years.

If you don't intend to vote in 2015:


  • 65.4% chance you voted No.
  • 65.4% chance you would vote No now.
  • 67.7% chance you're female.
  • Your mean age is 38.7 years.

If you voted Labour in 2010, then Yes in 2014:


  • 81% chance you'll vote SNP in 2015.
  • 83% chance you'll vote SNP in Holyrood.

If you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing well as First Minister:


  • 51.2% chance you are male.
  • Your mean age is 42.9 years.
  • You were most likely born in Scotland (37.8% chance).

If you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing badly as First Minister:


  • 52.6% chance you are male.
  • Your mean age is 45.0 years.
  • You were most likely born elsewhere in UK (38.2% chance).

If you think Jim Murphy is doing will as Scottish Labour leader:


  • 50.9% chance you are male.
  • Your mean age is 45.6 years.
  • You were most likely born elsewhere in UK (36.8% chance).

If you think Jim Murphy is doing badly as Scottish Labour leader:


  • 57.7% chance you are male.
  • Your mean age is 43.4 years.
  • You were most likely born in Scotland (39.7% chance).


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