Wednesday 18 March 2015

Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and overall elections predictions

Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election


Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election
Individual points are poll results.  Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th.  Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll.
The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average.  The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.

Overall Seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Alliance Party 0 1 0 1
Conservative 53 250 33 283
DUP 0 8 0 8
Green 0 1 4 5
Labour 32 226 63 289
Liberal Democrat 57 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 2 1 1 2
Respect 0 1 0 1
SDLP 0 3 0 3
SNP 0 6 36 42
Sinn Fein 1 4 0 4
Speaker 1 0 0 0
Sylvia Hermon 0 1 0 1
UKIP 0 2 8 10
UUP 0 0 1 1


Scotland seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 0 1 2 3
Labour 28 13 0 13
Liberal Democrat 11 0 0 0
SNP 0 6 36 42
UKIP 0 0 1 1


Scotland vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 16.74% 16.34% 0.98x
Green 0.68% 3.42% 5.01x
Labour 42.00% 27.11% 0.65x
Liberal Democrat 18.88% 5.13% 0.27x
SNP 19.93% 42.95% 2.16x
UKIP 0.70% 3.77% 5.40x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat SNP UKIP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North 12.56% 29.83% 5.25% 49.86% 0.00% Labour SNP
Aberdeen South 24.23% 28.27% 9.24% 30.63% 0.00% Labour SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 33.39% 9.94% 11.80% 38.20% 5.36% Liberal Democrat SNP
Airdrie & Shotts 8.49% 37.36% 2.18% 50.49% 0.00% Labour SNP
Angus 21.91% 8.07% 2.13% 61.92% 5.96% SNP SNP
Argyll & Bute 24.11% 15.08% 8.83% 41.97% 0.00% Liberal Democrat SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 25.75% 31.44% 2.61% 40.15% 0.00% Labour SNP
Ayrshire Central 20.71% 32.09% 3.37% 42.77% 0.00% Labour SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran 14.46% 29.00% 2.58% 52.98% 0.00% Labour SNP
Banff & Buchan 22.46% 6.75% 2.31% 66.47% 0.00% SNP SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 41.95% 8.38% 15.68% 25.16% 8.34% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 15.23% 19.06% 13.49% 49.57% 0.00% Liberal Democrat SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill 8.80% 47.83% 2.55% 40.40% 0.00% Labour Labour
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 8.04% 36.76% 2.58% 51.05% 0.00% Labour SNP
Dumfries & Galloway 31.82% 30.55% 2.47% 27.34% 7.41% Labour Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale 37.92% 19.06% 5.49% 23.72% 7.65% Conservative Conservative
Dunbartonshire East 19.65% 28.63% 13.66% 29.52% 7.97% Liberal Democrat SNP
Dunbartonshire West 7.27% 38.41% 2.14% 42.07% 8.47% Labour SNP
Dundee East 11.06% 16.02% 2.14% 60.69% 4.27% SNP SNP
Dundee West 8.41% 28.91% 2.86% 57.49% 0.00% Labour SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West 8.64% 39.14% 12.49% 30.02% 9.15% Labour Labour
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 11.60% 30.46% 2.47% 45.49% 0.00% Labour SNP
East Lothian 18.74% 28.12% 4.48% 33.76% 5.88% Labour SNP
Edinburgh East 9.29% 24.42% 4.60% 38.30% 0.00% Labour SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith 17.71% 29.36% 11.16% 25.24% 0.00% Labour Labour
Edinburgh South 26.38% 28.09% 11.58% 20.67% 0.00% Labour Labour
Edinburgh South West 25.35% 29.62% 5.24% 28.08% 0.00% Labour Labour
Edinburgh West 28.58% 22.61% 12.33% 35.84% 0.00% Liberal Democrat SNP
Falkirk 8.93% 24.07% 2.28% 53.20% 11.12% Labour SNP
Fife North East 23.73% 12.37% 13.47% 34.19% 15.54% Liberal Democrat SNP
Glasgow Central 6.58% 32.11% 4.26% 36.10% 4.15% Labour SNP
Glasgow East 4.13% 37.25% 1.28% 49.99% 3.29% Labour SNP
Glasgow North 7.76% 32.39% 9.60% 28.96% 0.00% Labour Labour
Glasgow North East 5.97% 50.55% 2.39% 34.91% 0.00% Labour Labour
Glasgow North West 9.96% 35.82% 4.41% 33.76% 0.00% Labour Labour
Glasgow South 10.51% 31.40% 3.02% 40.83% 0.00% Labour SNP
Glasgow South West 7.04% 44.42% 2.70% 38.77% 0.00% Labour Labour
Glenrothes 6.87% 39.25% 2.03% 45.68% 5.52% Labour SNP
Gordon 18.50% 13.17% 9.93% 48.54% 0.00% Liberal Democrat SNP
Inverclyde 7.94% 28.54% 0.50% 58.48% 4.54% Labour SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 13.47% 14.77% 11.46% 41.72% 6.81% Liberal Democrat SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun 12.99% 31.88% 1.88% 52.57% 0.00% Labour SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 9.58% 44.00% 2.68% 32.55% 9.46% Labour Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East 14.00% 30.85% 2.93% 43.31% 6.83% Labour SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East 11.34% 31.28% 3.38% 53.30% 0.00% Labour SNP
Livingston 9.61% 28.62% 2.76% 51.14% 4.57% Labour SNP
Midlothian 10.98% 28.74% 4.40% 42.12% 4.74% Labour SNP
Moray 18.01% 7.81% 2.79% 60.58% 10.11% SNP SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw 9.82% 42.43% 2.87% 42.09% 0.00% Labour Labour
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) 3.10% 15.34% 1.46% 71.16% 0.00% SNP SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire 16.47% 20.16% 2.55% 49.05% 6.07% Labour SNP
Orkney & Shetland 11.01% 7.39% 18.09% 24.44% 36.63% Liberal Democrat UKIP
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 14.86% 36.37% 2.98% 42.86% 0.00% Labour SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 10.36% 41.08% 2.76% 41.57% 0.00% Labour SNP
Perth & North Perthshire 22.72% 8.08% 2.55% 65.09% 0.00% SNP SNP
Renfrewshire East 33.39% 36.87% 2.82% 21.48% 4.41% Labour Labour
Ross, Skye & Lochaber 12.96% 10.59% 15.53% 35.35% 11.08% Liberal Democrat SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West 9.88% 41.13% 3.41% 36.36% 8.13% Labour Labour
Stirling 22.28% 25.61% 3.75% 35.37% 4.32% Labour SNP


Wales seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 1 7 1 8
Labour 0 26 4 30
Liberal Democrat 3 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 2 1 1 2


Wales vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 26.10% 26.00% 1.00x
Green 0.40% 3.79% 9.48x
Labour 36.20% 39.41% 1.09x
Liberal Democrat 20.10% 7.79% 0.39x
Plaid Cymru 11.30% 9.00% 0.80x
UKIP 2.40% 12.38% 5.16x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Wales:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Aberavon 14.23% 56.69% 6.32% 5.67% Labour Labour
Aberconwy 37.42% 27.95% 7.85% 14.89% Conservative Conservative
Alyn & Deeside 31.55% 42.29% 6.96% 3.03% Labour Labour
Arfon 17.27% 33.88% 5.58% 29.34% Plaid Cymru Labour
Blaenau Gwent 6.69% 54.82% 3.78% 3.15% Labour Labour
Brecon & Radnorshire 40.84% 12.89% 20.09% 2.27% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Bridgend 31.25% 40.77% 9.02% 4.86% Labour Labour
Caerphilly 16.78% 48.13% 5.61% 13.09% Labour Labour
Cardiff Central 21.70% 31.63% 16.22% 2.77% Liberal Democrat Labour
Cardiff North 34.64% 37.45% 6.58% 2.46% Conservative Labour
Cardiff South & Penarth 12.70% 33.08% 2.69% 4.88% Labour Labour
Cardiff West 24.91% 37.88% 5.74% 4.70% Labour Labour
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 21.86% 28.27% 4.61% 27.83% Plaid Cymru Labour
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South 38.88% 33.76% 4.44% 7.90% Conservative Conservative
Ceredigion 12.72% 6.95% 21.44% 24.88% Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru
Clwyd South 29.72% 41.27% 6.58% 6.82% Labour Labour
Clwyd West 41.63% 27.05% 5.94% 12.33% Conservative Conservative
Cynon Valley 9.42% 53.63% 5.02% 15.17% Labour Labour
Delyn 34.23% 44.05% 5.98% 3.94% Labour Labour
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 23.01% 15.68% 4.91% 36.57% Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru
Gower 32.72% 42.95% 7.59% 5.41% Labour Labour
Islwyn 12.98% 49.88% 3.74% 9.66% Labour Labour
Llanelli 13.78% 44.54% 3.89% 22.96% Labour Labour
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 7.77% 49.34% 12.48% 4.18% Labour Labour
Monmouth 43.23% 25.32% 6.76% 1.96% Conservative Conservative
Montgomeryshire 45.41% 8.55% 16.17% 7.28% Conservative Conservative
Neath 12.85% 49.74% 5.71% 15.67% Labour Labour
Newport East 24.77% 43.58% 13.51% 1.81% Labour Labour
Newport West 27.91% 38.91% 5.57% 1.95% Labour Labour
Ogmore 14.91% 56.28% 5.65% 7.34% Labour Labour
Pontypridd 15.16% 39.71% 11.37% 5.46% Labour Labour
Preseli Pembrokeshire 41.59% 33.10% 5.50% 7.17% Conservative Conservative
Rhondda 6.33% 59.63% 4.09% 14.29% Labour Labour
Swansea East 13.06% 49.78% 6.30% 4.72% Labour Labour
Swansea West 20.45% 37.22% 12.71% 3.17% Labour Labour
Torfaen 17.58% 42.92% 5.68% 3.74% Labour Labour
Vale of Clwyd 34.24% 44.93% 4.76% 4.53% Labour Labour
Vale of Glamorgan 36.34% 31.31% 5.15% 3.81% Conservative Conservative
Wrexham 25.86% 41.04% 10.22% 5.01% Labour Labour
Ynys Mon 20.49% 33.23% 2.67% 19.10% Labour Labour


London seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 5 23 4 27
Labour 0 38 8 46
Liberal Democrat 7 0 0 0


London vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 34.50% 32.95% 0.96x
Green 1.60% 4.46% 2.79x
Labour 36.60% 41.98% 1.15x
Liberal Democrat 22.10% 9.83% 0.45x
UKIP 1.70% 8.75% 5.15x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in London:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Barking 14.68% 53.78% 3.15% Labour Labour
Battersea 44.65% 39.75% 6.46% Conservative Conservative
Beckenham 53.16% 15.95% 8.81% Conservative Conservative
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 20.50% 42.11% 27.00% Liberal Democrat Labour
Bethnal Green & Bow 13.63% 50.45% 9.17% Labour Labour
Bexleyheath & Crayford 43.35% 27.36% 5.10% Conservative Conservative
Brent Central 12.73% 56.37% 23.44% Liberal Democrat Labour
Brent North 29.60% 52.86% 7.43% Labour Labour
Brentford & Isleworth 35.71% 38.70% 10.57% Conservative Labour
Bromley & Chislehurst 49.05% 18.23% 9.37% Conservative Conservative
Camberwell & Peckham 12.30% 67.11% 9.83% Labour Labour
Carshalton & Wallington 40.60% 11.57% 24.80% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Chelsea & Fulham 58.12% 21.36% 7.27% Conservative Conservative
Chingford & Woodford Green 47.73% 24.65% 7.08% Conservative Conservative
Chipping Barnet 43.95% 27.30% 8.46% Conservative Conservative
Cities of London & Westminster 49.24% 25.14% 9.02% Conservative Conservative
Croydon Central 35.29% 36.15% 5.51% Conservative Labour
Croydon North 11.77% 54.30% 1.14% Labour Labour
Croydon South 44.28% 20.93% 9.25% Conservative Conservative
Dagenham & Rainham 28.28% 39.85% 3.30% Labour Labour
Dulwich & West Norwood 20.75% 52.40% 11.85% Labour Labour
Ealing Central & Acton 37.29% 35.51% 12.63% Conservative Conservative
Ealing North 27.55% 54.00% 5.48% Labour Labour
Ealing Southall 28.04% 58.26% 6.55% Labour Labour
East Ham 13.71% 76.38% 4.88% Labour Labour
Edmonton 24.96% 53.89% 4.10% Labour Labour
Eltham 32.67% 43.38% 5.12% Labour Labour
Enfield North 37.31% 40.78% 4.99% Conservative Labour
Enfield Southgate 45.99% 36.03% 5.98% Conservative Conservative
Erith & Thamesmead 26.94% 46.16% 4.80% Labour Labour
Feltham & Heston 20.42% 48.18% 2.01% Labour Labour
Finchley & Golders Green 42.26% 37.16% 7.29% Conservative Conservative
Greenwich & Woolwich 23.14% 55.71% 8.00% Labour Labour
Hackney North & Stoke Newington 13.49% 61.25% 10.31% Labour Labour
Hackney South & Shoreditch 11.93% 59.01% 9.20% Labour Labour
Hammersmith 33.40% 48.37% 6.82% Labour Labour
Hampstead & Kilburn 33.85% 40.76% 15.04% Labour Labour
Harrow East 39.89% 40.30% 5.94% Conservative Labour
Harrow West 32.71% 46.56% 6.70% Labour Labour
Hayes & Harlington 27.02% 60.44% 3.74% Labour Labour
Hendon 37.22% 44.46% 5.06% Conservative Labour
Holborn & St Pancras 19.41% 52.76% 12.39% Labour Labour
Hornchurch & Upminster 41.79% 20.28% 5.26% Conservative Conservative
Hornsey & Wood Green 19.15% 46.93% 24.89% Liberal Democrat Labour
Ilford North 41.02% 36.89% 5.30% Conservative Conservative
Ilford South 23.54% 51.05% 6.79% Labour Labour
Islington North 12.89% 59.29% 11.25% Labour Labour
Islington South & Finsbury 19.14% 50.08% 15.66% Labour Labour
Kensington 45.81% 28.08% 8.34% Conservative Conservative
Kingston & Surbiton 41.07% 12.61% 26.07% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Lewisham Deptford 11.99% 57.43% 9.70% Labour Labour
Lewisham East 22.36% 48.98% 12.42% Labour Labour
Lewisham West & Penge 23.41% 45.28% 12.03% Labour Labour
Leyton & Wanstead 20.29% 47.79% 11.75% Labour Labour
Mitcham & Morden 21.69% 58.25% 4.75% Labour Labour
Old Bexley & Sidcup 47.75% 20.42% 6.32% Conservative Conservative
Orpington 57.40% 10.39% 10.99% Conservative Conservative
Poplar & Limehouse 24.36% 43.21% 4.67% Labour Labour
Putney 49.48% 31.28% 7.50% Conservative Conservative
Richmond Park 57.93% 7.03% 23.24% Conservative Conservative
Romford 46.61% 19.52% 4.65% Conservative Conservative
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 51.89% 21.17% 6.99% Conservative Conservative
Streatham 19.43% 54.50% 17.70% Labour Labour
Sutton & Cheam 48.19% 9.51% 24.21% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Tooting 35.09% 47.60% 6.29% Labour Labour
Tottenham 13.09% 62.57% 7.24% Labour Labour
Twickenham 41.48% 11.22% 30.86% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Uxbridge & Ruislip South 44.01% 25.61% 8.48% Conservative Conservative
Vauxhall 21.27% 59.04% 11.55% Labour Labour
Walthamstow 12.82% 57.08% 12.27% Labour Labour
West Ham 12.43% 63.77% 4.53% Labour Labour
Westminster North 35.37% 48.40% 5.96% Labour Labour
Wimbledon 47.47% 25.86% 11.27% Conservative Conservative


East Midlands seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 9 21 0 21
Labour 1 15 8 23
UKIP 0 0 2 2


East Midlands vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 39.60% 34.96% 0.88x
Green 1.00% 6.49% 6.49x
Labour 28.10% 32.63% 1.16x
Liberal Democrat 24.20% 8.75% 0.36x
UKIP 3.50% 15.05% 4.30x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in East Midlands:

Constituency Conservative Labour UKIP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Amber Valley 34.49% 44.01% 8.58% Conservative Labour
Ashfield 22.26% 44.46% 9.46% Labour Labour
Bassetlaw 27.47% 53.81% 14.17% Labour Labour
Bolsover 20.02% 53.58% 15.53% Labour Labour
Boston & Skegness 36.52% 20.05% 34.05% Conservative Conservative
Bosworth 45.27% 22.33% 10.47% Conservative Conservative
Broxtowe 33.49% 43.23% 9.46% Conservative Labour
Charnwood 46.12% 24.07% 15.22% Conservative Conservative
Chesterfield 14.16% 46.20% 13.69% Labour Labour
Corby 15.17% 36.36% 39.84% Labour UKIP
Daventry 46.66% 17.14% 18.13% Conservative Conservative
Derby North 31.01% 42.55% 8.77% Labour Labour
Derby South 23.80% 47.65% 18.00% Labour Labour
Derbyshire Dales 43.95% 21.49% 15.63% Conservative Conservative
Derbyshire Mid 45.23% 30.13% 12.06% Conservative Conservative
Derbyshire North East 27.37% 41.68% 22.67% Labour Labour
Derbyshire South 41.04% 37.21% 10.51% Conservative Conservative
Erewash 34.06% 38.85% 7.54% Conservative Labour
Gainsborough 46.60% 19.45% 19.32% Conservative Conservative
Gedling 31.93% 46.35% 12.63% Labour Labour
Grantham & Stamford 47.54% 22.38% 13.99% Conservative Conservative
Harborough 50.39% 17.20% 13.34% Conservative Conservative
High Peak 33.39% 33.95% 13.35% Conservative Labour
Kettering 48.35% 38.73% 0.00% Conservative Conservative
Leicester East 19.45% 56.33% 5.86% Labour Labour
Leicester South 12.99% 65.36% 12.17% Labour Labour
Leicester West 22.31% 41.46% 9.86% Labour Labour
Leicestershire North West 40.59% 36.07% 9.69% Conservative Conservative
Leicestershire South 45.10% 25.04% 16.18% Conservative Conservative
Lincoln 34.37% 42.43% 9.79% Conservative Labour
Loughborough 38.44% 41.95% 7.88% Conservative Labour
Louth & Horncastle 44.79% 20.59% 19.00% Conservative Conservative
Mansfield 20.30% 39.31% 23.17% Labour Labour
Newark 20.24% 10.45% 56.73% Conservative UKIP
Northampton North 30.07% 33.98% 13.20% Conservative Labour
Northampton South 33.02% 27.05% 19.17% Conservative Conservative
Northamptonshire South 47.28% 19.51% 16.75% Conservative Conservative
Nottingham East 17.87% 45.02% 12.63% Labour Labour
Nottingham North 20.25% 52.12% 15.52% Labour Labour
Nottingham South 27.75% 41.32% 9.73% Labour Labour
Rushcliffe 40.85% 21.77% 15.79% Conservative Conservative
Rutland & Melton 47.08% 17.32% 20.53% Conservative Conservative
Sherwood 33.55% 43.65% 12.68% Conservative Labour
Sleaford & North Hykeham 46.51% 20.02% 15.96% Conservative Conservative
South Holland & The Deepings 45.04% 14.04% 24.03% Conservative Conservative
Wellingborough 40.85% 28.32% 13.07% Conservative Conservative


West Midlands seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 8 25 1 26
Labour 0 24 9 33
Liberal Democrat 2 0 0 0


West Midlands vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 39.60% 34.96% 0.88x
Green 1.00% 6.49% 6.49x
Labour 28.10% 32.63% 1.16x
Liberal Democrat 24.20% 8.75% 0.36x
UKIP 3.50% 15.05% 4.30x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in West Midlands:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Aldridge-Brownhills 53.98% 23.70% 6.59% Conservative Conservative
Birmingham Edgbaston 31.75% 45.17% 5.32% Labour Labour
Birmingham Erdington 28.62% 48.29% 5.81% Labour Labour
Birmingham Hall Green 14.05% 40.49% 9.42% Labour Labour
Birmingham Hodge Hill 10.80% 63.53% 10.55% Labour Labour
Birmingham Ladywood 9.43% 57.90% 8.90% Labour Labour
Birmingham Northfield 27.28% 42.99% 5.21% Labour Labour
Birmingham Perry Barr 17.94% 55.67% 7.57% Labour Labour
Birmingham Selly Oak 26.29% 42.91% 7.72% Labour Labour
Birmingham Yardley 19.36% 42.77% 16.36% Liberal Democrat Labour
Bromsgrove 36.75% 24.11% 6.76% Conservative Conservative
Burton 39.45% 37.16% 5.75% Conservative Conservative
Cannock Chase 34.87% 37.85% 6.04% Conservative Labour
Coventry North East 18.63% 54.54% 5.73% Labour Labour
Coventry North West 24.09% 46.29% 6.03% Labour Labour
Coventry South 26.34% 43.34% 5.82% Labour Labour
Dudley North 26.40% 36.31% 3.08% Labour Labour
Dudley South 32.28% 32.51% 4.81% Conservative Labour
Halesowen & Rowley Regis 32.05% 37.46% 4.72% Conservative Labour
Hereford & Herefordshire South 50.19% 10.35% 18.28% Conservative Conservative
Herefordshire North 40.69% 7.33% 9.98% Conservative Conservative
Kenilworth & Southam 50.43% 17.77% 10.66% Conservative Conservative
Lichfield 46.44% 22.28% 7.03% Conservative Conservative
Ludlow 49.47% 8.28% 12.58% Conservative Conservative
Meriden 44.51% 23.25% 6.27% Conservative Conservative
Newcastle-under-Lyme 25.88% 37.60% 6.05% Labour Labour
Nuneaton 39.72% 46.42% 6.01% Conservative Labour
Redditch 36.30% 33.23% 6.02% Conservative Conservative
Rugby 40.38% 37.87% 7.47% Conservative Conservative
Shrewsbury & Atcham 40.16% 24.74% 10.85% Conservative Conservative
Shropshire North 41.86% 19.40% 6.98% Conservative Conservative
Solihull 48.67% 13.35% 20.08% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Stafford 35.77% 35.40% 5.46% Conservative Conservative
Staffordshire Moorlands 34.08% 29.68% 5.17% Conservative Conservative
Staffordshire South 44.54% 22.37% 5.73% Conservative Conservative
Stoke-on-Trent Central 17.55% 42.59% 7.40% Labour Labour
Stoke-on-Trent North 18.33% 44.84% 5.58% Labour Labour
Stoke-on-Trent South 23.77% 42.69% 5.44% Labour Labour
Stone 41.63% 22.40% 7.57% Conservative Conservative
Stourbridge 34.21% 33.48% 5.38% Conservative Conservative
Stratford-on-Avon 47.52% 11.54% 10.99% Conservative Conservative
Sutton Coldfield 46.39% 23.02% 6.34% Conservative Conservative
Tamworth 37.84% 35.51% 5.48% Conservative Conservative
Telford 28.39% 39.79% 4.96% Labour Labour
Walsall North 27.23% 38.68% 4.28% Labour Labour
Walsall South 25.51% 37.63% 4.25% Labour Labour
Warley 18.25% 51.24% 4.67% Labour Labour
Warwick & Leamington 36.05% 39.45% 6.35% Conservative Labour
Warwickshire North 33.80% 44.34% 3.99% Conservative Labour
West Bromwich East 24.08% 51.03% 4.49% Labour Labour
West Bromwich West 23.09% 46.56% 3.86% Labour Labour
Wolverhampton North East 28.39% 45.10% 4.58% Labour Labour
Wolverhampton South East 20.69% 45.31% 4.51% Labour Labour
Wolverhampton South West 34.19% 43.07% 5.51% Conservative Labour
Worcester 32.60% 36.28% 6.57% Conservative Labour
Worcestershire Mid 44.37% 16.00% 7.79% Conservative Conservative
Worcestershire West 48.46% 8.58% 14.92% Conservative Conservative
Wrekin, The 40.57% 30.37% 6.08% Conservative Conservative
Wyre Forest 32.15% 16.42% 4.23% Conservative Conservative


South West seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 4 32 14 46
Labour 0 4 5 9
Liberal Democrat 15 0 0 0


South West vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 39.60% 36.74% 0.93x
Green 1.00% 7.02% 7.02x
Labour 28.10% 30.79% 1.10x
Liberal Democrat 24.20% 9.53% 0.39x
Speaker 39.60% 36.74% 0.93x
UKIP 3.50% 14.32% 4.09x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in South West:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Bath 34.51% 8.97% 26.44% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Bournemouth East 44.70% 14.45% 12.10% Conservative Conservative
Bournemouth West 41.32% 16.01% 12.33% Conservative Conservative
Bridgwater & Somerset West 39.76% 17.76% 10.55% Conservative Conservative
Bristol East 24.33% 37.13% 8.91% Labour Labour
Bristol North West 37.40% 30.18% 13.16% Conservative Conservative
Bristol South 19.67% 38.99% 10.44% Labour Labour
Bristol West 17.26% 30.53% 19.16% Liberal Democrat Labour
Camborne & Redruth 34.75% 17.85% 14.69% Conservative Conservative
Cheltenham 51.53% 7.57% 26.82% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Chippenham 44.33% 8.82% 20.98% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Christchurch 48.41% 9.94% 9.19% Conservative Conservative
Cornwall North 46.17% 5.50% 22.59% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Cornwall South East 40.43% 7.48% 14.69% Conservative Conservative
Cotswolds, The 47.85% 11.44% 11.32% Conservative Conservative
Devizes 48.45% 10.57% 10.09% Conservative Conservative
Devon Central 45.67% 7.22% 12.93% Conservative Conservative
Devon East 39.49% 10.40% 10.81% Conservative Conservative
Devon North 33.37% 5.70% 18.62% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Devon South West 47.31% 12.40% 8.66% Conservative Conservative
Devon West & Torridge 41.75% 5.70% 15.65% Conservative Conservative
Dorset Mid & Poole North 48.96% 7.63% 21.05% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Dorset North 48.87% 6.08% 15.02% Conservative Conservative
Dorset South 38.65% 30.67% 6.92% Conservative Conservative
Dorset West 48.11% 7.94% 17.48% Conservative Conservative
Exeter 27.80% 38.02% 7.25% Labour Labour
Filton & Bradley Stoke 37.84% 29.00% 9.95% Conservative Conservative
Forest of Dean 38.29% 23.33% 7.59% Conservative Conservative
Gloucester 34.80% 36.20% 7.12% Conservative Labour
Kingswood 35.49% 36.63% 6.28% Conservative Labour
Newton Abbot 39.32% 7.57% 16.27% Conservative Conservative
Plymouth Moor View 25.46% 33.52% 5.47% Labour Labour
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 26.70% 29.13% 8.15% Conservative Labour
Poole 45.94% 14.55% 12.97% Conservative Conservative
Salisbury 50.18% 9.17% 15.97% Conservative Conservative
Somerset North 51.48% 13.73% 15.83% Conservative Conservative
Somerset North East 36.12% 32.74% 8.30% Conservative Conservative
Somerton & Frome 52.19% 6.11% 23.64% Liberal Democrat Conservative
St Austell & Newquay 43.91% 9.30% 19.93% Liberal Democrat Conservative
St Ives 33.63% 8.32% 15.65% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Stroud 32.87% 36.70% 5.28% Conservative Labour
Swindon North 38.44% 31.10% 6.31% Conservative Conservative
Swindon South 34.61% 33.53% 6.20% Conservative Conservative
Taunton Deane 48.99% 7.00% 24.18% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Tewkesbury 45.69% 13.25% 14.59% Conservative Conservative
Thornbury & Yate 43.81% 9.78% 25.99% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Tiverton & Honiton 44.31% 9.30% 12.46% Conservative Conservative
Torbay 38.72% 7.76% 19.95% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Totnes 38.47% 7.33% 12.66% Conservative Conservative
Truro & Falmouth 39.89% 10.88% 16.57% Conservative Conservative
Wells 44.66% 9.32% 19.59% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Weston-Super-Mare 49.23% 14.37% 18.49% Conservative Conservative
Wiltshire North 49.97% 7.61% 14.89% Conservative Conservative
Wiltshire South West 49.37% 12.93% 12.38% Conservative Conservative
Yeovil 39.02% 7.33% 28.04% Liberal Democrat Conservative


Eastern seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 4 47 2 49
Green 0 0 2 2
Labour 0 2 4 6
Liberal Democrat 4 0 0 0
UKIP 0 1 0 1


Eastern vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 39.60% 36.74% 0.93x
Green 1.00% 7.02% 7.02x
Labour 28.10% 30.79% 1.10x
Liberal Democrat 24.20% 9.53% 0.39x
Speaker 39.60% 36.74% 0.93x
UKIP 3.50% 14.32% 4.09x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Eastern:

Constituency Conservative Green Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Basildon & Billericay 48.55% 0.00% 25.07% 6.14% 15.54% Conservative Conservative
Basildon South & Thurrock East 36.99% 0.00% 30.85% 4.78% 21.94% Conservative Conservative
Bedford 35.48% 6.01% 38.68% 7.69% 10.13% Conservative Labour
Bedfordshire Mid 45.51% 9.23% 15.13% 9.16% 19.69% Conservative Conservative
Bedfordshire North East 53.24% 0.00% 18.17% 8.78% 17.38% Conservative Conservative
Bedfordshire South West 49.46% 0.00% 21.68% 7.96% 17.43% Conservative Conservative
Braintree 43.90% 9.21% 19.58% 6.65% 18.52% Conservative Conservative
Brentwood & Ongar 51.67% 7.93% 10.58% 9.04% 16.12% Conservative Conservative
Broadland 42.38% 9.91% 14.99% 12.60% 18.30% Conservative Conservative
Broxbourne 53.29% 0.00% 18.85% 5.14% 16.55% Conservative Conservative
Bury St Edmunds 35.55% 24.30% 14.72% 8.39% 16.88% Conservative Conservative
Cambridge 18.26% 40.96% 20.47% 11.85% 7.50% Liberal Democrat Green
Cambridgeshire North East 46.64% 0.00% 19.02% 7.69% 21.37% Conservative Conservative
Cambridgeshire North West 42.38% 0.00% 16.80% 7.79% 30.66% Conservative Conservative
Cambridgeshire South 45.12% 12.67% 11.47% 13.79% 13.32% Conservative Conservative
Cambridgeshire South East 47.27% 9.91% 8.85% 15.75% 16.13% Conservative Conservative
Castle Point 43.96% 0.00% 17.33% 3.99% 0.00% Conservative Conservative
Chelmsford 47.84% 6.83% 13.41% 16.19% 12.78% Conservative Conservative
Clacton 7.75% 4.63% 4.16% 0.18% 82.90% UKIP UKIP
Colchester 34.60% 11.98% 15.31% 21.45% 13.58% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Epping Forest 47.36% 9.39% 14.77% 8.01% 15.38% Conservative Conservative
Great Yarmouth 35.52% 6.02% 32.30% 5.02% 17.43% Conservative Conservative
Harlow 40.19% 0.00% 35.60% 5.19% 14.32% Conservative Conservative
Harwich & Essex North 38.90% 11.63% 19.53% 8.30% 18.85% Conservative Conservative
Hemel Hempstead 49.87% 0.00% 24.53% 9.69% 11.16% Conservative Conservative
Hertford & Stortford 54.38% 0.00% 16.42% 11.13% 13.81% Conservative Conservative
Hertfordshire North East 46.29% 11.35% 16.79% 8.59% 15.69% Conservative Conservative
Hertfordshire South West 56.72% 0.00% 14.21% 12.40% 11.79% Conservative Conservative
Hertsmere 48.67% 8.40% 19.26% 6.41% 13.88% Conservative Conservative
Hitchin & Harpenden 50.64% 10.35% 14.84% 10.50% 12.44% Conservative Conservative
Huntingdon 42.61% 7.92% 11.35% 10.71% 23.09% Conservative Conservative
Ipswich 33.29% 10.62% 34.87% 6.58% 10.91% Conservative Labour
Luton North 25.71% 6.97% 47.08% 3.82% 12.98% Labour Labour
Luton South 27.04% 6.04% 37.94% 8.86% 9.38% Labour Labour
Maldon 54.55% 0.00% 13.65% 7.48% 20.53% Conservative Conservative
Norfolk Mid 38.33% 16.81% 15.96% 7.29% 18.84% Conservative Conservative
Norfolk North 33.70% 8.13% 7.24% 24.75% 25.01% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Norfolk North West 47.70% 10.37% 13.81% 8.68% 14.95% Conservative Conservative
Norfolk South 43.74% 12.19% 13.81% 11.08% 16.56% Conservative Conservative
Norfolk South West 38.83% 10.26% 17.61% 7.36% 22.07% Conservative Conservative
Norwich North 31.06% 16.93% 28.41% 5.94% 14.89% Conservative Conservative
Norwich South 11.72% 57.71% 17.34% 6.37% 5.43% Liberal Democrat Green
Peterborough 32.08% 7.00% 27.74% 6.62% 23.46% Conservative Conservative
Rayleigh & Wickford 52.58% 0.00% 15.55% 5.84% 16.95% Conservative Conservative
Rochford & Southend East 37.47% 10.27% 19.19% 6.59% 20.38% Conservative Conservative
Saffron Walden 50.45% 9.30% 10.45% 10.59% 16.44% Conservative Conservative
Southend West 41.74% 10.12% 14.36% 11.30% 15.71% Conservative Conservative
St Albans 38.54% 10.26% 19.64% 14.61% 16.01% Conservative Conservative
Stevenage 36.53% 0.00% 34.80% 6.23% 17.46% Conservative Conservative
Suffolk Central & Ipswich North 41.40% 16.76% 15.57% 8.64% 15.89% Conservative Conservative
Suffolk Coastal 38.79% 12.70% 15.85% 10.56% 21.20% Conservative Conservative
Suffolk South 43.36% 0.00% 15.37% 11.89% 28.33% Conservative Conservative
Suffolk West 44.86% 0.00% 15.45% 8.82% 25.11% Conservative Conservative
Thurrock 28.82% 0.00% 33.86% 3.55% 25.55% Conservative Labour
Watford 33.12% 11.49% 29.92% 13.02% 9.08% Conservative Conservative
Waveney 30.13% 12.93% 34.25% 4.23% 17.34% Conservative Labour
Welwyn Hatfield 48.29% 10.43% 21.41% 5.89% 12.55% Conservative Conservative
Witham 38.50% 16.90% 16.10% 6.18% 21.25% Conservative Conservative


North East seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 1 1 1 2
Labour 1 24 2 26
Liberal Democrat 2 0 0 0
UKIP 0 0 1 1


North East vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 39.60% 32.98% 0.83x
Green 1.00% 6.53% 6.53x
Labour 28.10% 36.47% 1.30x
Liberal Democrat 24.20% 8.31% 0.34x
UKIP 3.50% 13.85% 3.96x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in North East:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Berwick-upon-Tweed 38.84% 21.70% 19.05% 16.24% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Bishop Auckland 21.71% 50.18% 7.61% 10.68% Labour Labour
Blaydon 14.27% 69.28% 10.83% 0.00% Labour Labour
Blyth Valley 13.12% 54.70% 8.84% 16.18% Labour Labour
Darlington 26.29% 51.25% 8.06% 11.04% Labour Labour
Durham North 16.24% 60.75% 6.69% 12.02% Labour Labour
Durham North West 16.36% 53.91% 8.40% 11.16% Labour Labour
Durham, City of 12.01% 62.41% 14.03% 7.94% Labour Labour
Easington 9.59% 64.19% 4.62% 15.51% Labour Labour
Gateshead 10.89% 61.49% 6.41% 9.98% Labour Labour
Hartlepool 19.81% 46.69% 4.96% 23.46% Labour Labour
Hexham 45.28% 30.99% 12.91% 0.00% Conservative Conservative
Houghton & Sunderland South 16.07% 58.82% 4.30% 9.57% Labour Labour
Jarrow 16.95% 69.04% 6.25% 0.00% Labour Labour
Middlesbrough 3.61% 54.02% 2.34% 32.12% Labour Labour
Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East 27.42% 47.08% 5.04% 14.88% Labour Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 14.45% 53.46% 7.41% 7.83% Labour Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne East 13.49% 59.03% 11.53% 0.00% Labour Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne North 14.95% 52.48% 11.24% 11.45% Labour Labour
Redcar 12.48% 46.15% 16.83% 19.19% Liberal Democrat Labour
Sedgefield 18.02% 53.95% 6.32% 13.41% Labour Labour
South Shields 5.23% 35.68% 0.26% 52.12% Labour UKIP
Stockton North 19.49% 50.15% 4.97% 14.06% Labour Labour
Stockton South 30.98% 47.45% 4.95% 11.05% Conservative Labour
Sunderland Central 23.53% 55.98% 5.46% 9.58% Labour Labour
Tynemouth 26.11% 53.57% 4.66% 6.16% Labour Labour
Tyneside North 14.34% 61.69% 7.37% 10.45% Labour Labour
Wansbeck 13.23% 53.89% 8.54% 9.12% Labour Labour
Washington & Sunderland West 16.19% 60.66% 5.22% 11.94% Labour Labour


South East seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 3 70 3 73
Green 0 1 2 3
Labour 0 4 1 5
Liberal Democrat 4 0 0 0
Speaker 1 0 0 0
UKIP 0 1 2 3


South East vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 39.60% 36.74% 0.93x
Green 1.00% 7.02% 7.02x
Labour 28.10% 30.79% 1.10x
Liberal Democrat 24.20% 9.53% 0.39x
Speaker 39.60% 36.74% 0.93x
UKIP 3.50% 14.32% 4.09x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in South East:

Constituency Conservative Green Labour Liberal Democrat Speaker UKIP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Aldershot 47.71% 0.00% 14.59% 14.92% 0.00% 20.26% Conservative Conservative
Arundel & South Downs 55.09% 0.00% 9.73% 11.31% 0.00% 23.84% Conservative Conservative
Ashford 46.08% 11.83% 16.77% 8.24% 0.00% 17.06% Conservative Conservative
Aylesbury 47.80% 0.00% 13.63% 11.06% 0.00% 27.47% Conservative Conservative
Banbury 43.99% 10.74% 18.85% 7.21% 0.00% 18.33% Conservative Conservative
Basingstoke 48.73% 0.00% 23.23% 10.03% 0.00% 17.44% Conservative Conservative
Beaconsfield 51.96% 9.42% 11.75% 7.07% 0.00% 18.57% Conservative Conservative
Bexhill & Battle 59.38% 0.00% 16.26% 13.67% 0.00% 0.00% Conservative Conservative
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton 46.06% 0.00% 14.86% 8.95% 0.00% 25.60% Conservative Conservative
Bracknell 45.21% 10.27% 17.11% 8.16% 0.00% 16.76% Conservative Conservative
Brighton Kemptown 26.54% 28.84% 28.78% 5.34% 0.00% 9.99% Conservative Green
Brighton Pavilion 7.65% 76.59% 11.04% 1.89% 0.00% 2.61% Green Green
Buckingham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29.14% 47.24% Speaker UKIP
Canterbury 39.69% 15.48% 16.88% 12.23% 0.00% 15.14% Conservative Conservative
Chatham & Aylesford 40.15% 5.94% 33.20% 4.91% 0.00% 11.50% Conservative Conservative
Chesham & Amersham 55.71% 10.21% 6.12% 11.17% 0.00% 16.53% Conservative Conservative
Chichester 50.46% 0.00% 11.26% 10.60% 0.00% 27.43% Conservative Conservative
Crawley 38.43% 8.18% 32.74% 5.25% 0.00% 11.02% Conservative Conservative
Dartford 44.40% 0.00% 29.63% 5.68% 0.00% 14.77% Conservative Conservative
Dover 40.20% 0.00% 36.19% 6.13% 0.00% 13.97% Conservative Conservative
Eastbourne 49.05% 0.00% 6.82% 24.19% 0.00% 13.30% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Eastleigh 14.21% 0.00% 6.50% 7.62% 0.00% 68.69% Liberal Democrat UKIP
Epsom & Ewell 54.51% 0.00% 13.64% 11.04% 0.00% 19.85% Conservative Conservative
Esher & Walton 59.24% 0.00% 12.69% 10.60% 0.00% 14.50% Conservative Conservative
Fareham 48.90% 9.74% 14.85% 8.95% 0.00% 16.05% Conservative Conservative
Faversham & Kent Mid 47.82% 12.26% 16.67% 7.08% 0.00% 13.84% Conservative Conservative
Folkestone & Hythe 45.36% 8.37% 11.74% 11.79% 0.00% 18.69% Conservative Conservative
Gillingham & Rainham 41.44% 5.16% 29.30% 6.90% 0.00% 12.81% Conservative Conservative
Gosport 46.68% 8.33% 18.03% 8.06% 0.00% 12.67% Conservative Conservative
Gravesham 39.09% 8.70% 27.45% 4.55% 0.00% 17.01% Conservative Conservative
Guildford 62.60% 0.00% 7.02% 19.59% 0.00% 9.52% Conservative Conservative
Hampshire East 60.11% 0.00% 9.85% 13.70% 0.00% 13.44% Conservative Conservative
Hampshire North East 59.42% 0.00% 11.32% 10.60% 0.00% 18.08% Conservative Conservative
Hampshire North West 54.45% 0.00% 14.45% 9.29% 0.00% 21.26% Conservative Conservative
Hastings & Rye 37.99% 0.00% 40.51% 6.16% 0.00% 11.44% Conservative Labour
Havant 46.07% 0.00% 18.87% 8.96% 0.00% 23.65% Conservative Conservative
Henley 48.36% 16.16% 11.09% 9.20% 0.00% 12.90% Conservative Conservative
Horsham 49.01% 7.18% 8.24% 12.71% 0.00% 20.84% Conservative Conservative
Hove 27.04% 28.71% 28.68% 7.05% 0.00% 7.86% Conservative Green
Isle of Wight 44.35% 9.52% 13.04% 12.79% 0.00% 14.52% Conservative Conservative
Lewes 39.43% 11.81% 6.35% 23.69% 0.00% 16.33% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Maidenhead 59.61% 6.80% 8.37% 12.02% 0.00% 10.23% Conservative Conservative
Maidstone & The Weald 46.96% 9.90% 11.26% 14.94% 0.00% 14.44% Conservative Conservative
Meon Valley 60.29% 0.00% 8.07% 14.82% 0.00% 13.75% Conservative Conservative
Milton Keynes North 38.35% 9.08% 27.96% 8.27% 0.00% 12.80% Conservative Conservative
Milton Keynes South 35.08% 8.92% 32.08% 6.33% 0.00% 13.93% Conservative Conservative
Mole Valley 50.65% 10.97% 7.28% 10.74% 0.00% 19.67% Conservative Conservative
New Forest East 45.62% 13.36% 10.02% 11.08% 0.00% 19.16% Conservative Conservative
New Forest West 47.49% 13.59% 9.35% 7.98% 0.00% 20.83% Conservative Conservative
Newbury 59.27% 6.64% 5.30% 15.84% 0.00% 11.66% Conservative Conservative
Oxford East 16.67% 16.05% 44.41% 12.63% 0.00% 9.08% Labour Labour
Oxford West & Abingdon 41.68% 15.62% 12.36% 17.56% 0.00% 11.67% Conservative Conservative
Portsmouth North 38.28% 6.83% 28.35% 7.38% 0.00% 15.66% Conservative Conservative
Portsmouth South 34.57% 13.65% 16.79% 20.24% 0.00% 9.73% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Reading East 38.21% 14.53% 27.01% 10.42% 0.00% 8.61% Conservative Conservative
Reading West 37.87% 8.12% 31.64% 7.48% 0.00% 12.27% Conservative Conservative
Reigate 45.75% 14.09% 11.48% 9.53% 0.00% 15.79% Conservative Conservative
Rochester & Strood 12.71% 11.66% 7.22% 0.13% 0.00% 67.79% UKIP UKIP
Romsey & Southampton North 56.89% 0.00% 8.60% 20.02% 0.00% 13.28% Conservative Conservative
Runnymede & Weybridge 45.47% 8.89% 12.86% 7.46% 0.00% 23.44% Conservative Conservative
Sevenoaks 54.70% 0.00% 15.05% 8.73% 0.00% 15.31% Conservative Conservative
Sittingbourne & Sheppey 43.60% 0.00% 25.27% 6.04% 0.00% 20.65% Conservative Conservative
Slough 28.68% 7.19% 45.32% 5.17% 0.00% 11.73% Labour Labour
Southampton Itchen 30.36% 8.54% 36.30% 7.39% 0.00% 16.00% Labour Labour
Southampton Test 27.10% 12.38% 37.31% 7.78% 0.00% 14.14% Labour Labour
Spelthorne 39.76% 0.00% 16.43% 9.28% 0.00% 31.58% Conservative Conservative
Surrey East 50.90% 0.00% 9.55% 9.85% 0.00% 27.30% Conservative Conservative
Surrey Heath 52.58% 0.00% 11.01% 10.00% 0.00% 25.41% Conservative Conservative
Surrey South West 57.76% 8.97% 6.94% 12.61% 0.00% 11.26% Conservative Conservative
Sussex Mid 52.24% 9.00% 8.03% 16.38% 0.00% 11.57% Conservative Conservative
Thanet North 45.27% 0.00% 21.78% 7.07% 0.00% 24.66% Conservative Conservative
Thanet South 40.98% 0.00% 31.68% 5.47% 0.00% 20.74% Conservative Conservative
Tonbridge & Malling 51.19% 9.95% 13.17% 8.44% 0.00% 14.52% Conservative Conservative
Tunbridge Wells 49.07% 11.99% 11.16% 9.36% 0.00% 15.71% Conservative Conservative
Wantage 45.43% 12.25% 14.39% 10.36% 0.00% 16.56% Conservative Conservative
Wealden 45.08% 15.17% 9.02% 8.56% 0.00% 21.23% Conservative Conservative
Winchester 57.50% 0.00% 7.63% 21.67% 0.00% 10.64% Conservative Conservative
Windsor 55.40% 8.72% 10.65% 8.67% 0.00% 13.06% Conservative Conservative
Witney 44.78% 23.78% 11.69% 6.28% 0.00% 11.63% Conservative Conservative
Woking 53.42% 0.00% 10.09% 16.86% 0.00% 17.72% Conservative Conservative
Wokingham 50.41% 7.52% 11.42% 11.36% 0.00% 12.87% Conservative Conservative
Worthing East & Shoreham 38.43% 13.95% 15.65% 8.59% 0.00% 21.56% Conservative Conservative
Worthing West 42.70% 12.66% 11.51% 9.76% 0.00% 21.67% Conservative Conservative
Wycombe 47.18% 0.00% 19.81% 11.85% 0.00% 18.86% Conservative Conservative


North West seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 13 9 4 13
Labour 1 46 15 61
Liberal Democrat 6 0 0 0
UKIP 0 0 1 1


North West vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 39.60% 32.98% 0.83x
Green 1.00% 6.53% 6.53x
Labour 28.10% 36.47% 1.30x
Liberal Democrat 24.20% 8.31% 0.34x
UKIP 3.50% 13.85% 3.96x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in North West:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Altrincham & Sale West 44.73% 31.93% 9.59% 13.73% Conservative Conservative
Ashton Under Lyne 18.15% 55.33% 4.48% 15.28% Labour Labour
Barrow & Furness 26.52% 54.76% 3.02% 6.61% Labour Labour
Birkenhead 15.24% 78.45% 6.16% 0.00% Labour Labour
Blackburn 20.51% 58.45% 4.92% 7.71% Labour Labour
Blackley & Broughton 13.65% 63.06% 4.37% 9.26% Labour Labour
Blackpool North & Cleveleys 32.41% 44.10% 4.25% 15.05% Conservative Labour
Blackpool South 27.52% 49.20% 4.57% 14.03% Labour Labour
Bolton North East 27.22% 53.39% 4.00% 14.86% Labour Labour
Bolton South East 17.81% 51.36% 4.55% 13.03% Labour Labour
Bolton West 28.48% 44.61% 5.26% 14.10% Labour Labour
Bootle 5.86% 68.14% 4.10% 19.04% Labour Labour
Burnley 15.38% 45.22% 13.62% 9.76% Liberal Democrat Labour
Bury North 33.05% 45.11% 5.76% 11.14% Conservative Labour
Bury South 26.26% 49.23% 5.87% 7.82% Labour Labour
Carlisle 29.91% 44.22% 4.88% 8.30% Conservative Labour
Cheadle 46.36% 16.58% 22.02% 14.68% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Chester, City of 32.05% 43.16% 6.21% 9.82% Conservative Labour
Chorley 28.88% 51.17% 4.37% 14.65% Labour Labour
Congleton 42.68% 25.02% 12.24% 18.72% Conservative Conservative
Copeland 27.31% 52.84% 3.10% 8.13% Labour Labour
Crewe & Nantwich 37.75% 43.65% 5.08% 10.83% Conservative Labour
Denton & Reddish 17.86% 57.08% 5.29% 18.68% Labour Labour
Eddisbury 44.80% 29.13% 8.04% 17.51% Conservative Conservative
Ellesmere Port & Neston 26.65% 53.20% 4.74% 13.29% Labour Labour
Fylde 41.57% 24.48% 7.24% 16.83% Conservative Conservative
Garston & Halewood 11.88% 68.34% 6.11% 12.58% Labour Labour
Halton 13.68% 60.94% 3.86% 9.57% Labour Labour
Hazel Grove 34.19% 19.76% 20.45% 24.72% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Heywood & Middleton 4.30% 22.28% 0.74% 64.31% Labour UKIP
Hyndburn 24.33% 46.03% 3.49% 11.85% Labour Labour
Knowsley 6.26% 77.17% 3.84% 8.51% Labour Labour
Lancashire West 26.08% 50.70% 4.03% 12.53% Labour Labour
Lancaster & Fleetwood 24.18% 36.87% 5.28% 7.61% Conservative Labour
Leigh 15.86% 56.71% 5.67% 12.46% Labour Labour
Liverpool Riverside 7.21% 60.92% 6.18% 5.44% Labour Labour
Liverpool Walton 4.54% 77.97% 4.08% 8.63% Labour Labour
Liverpool Wavertree 5.72% 63.38% 10.79% 8.54% Labour Labour
Liverpool West Derby 6.45% 69.73% 3.60% 10.12% Labour Labour
Macclesfield 38.54% 25.97% 7.80% 11.04% Conservative Conservative
Makerfield 15.44% 60.65% 5.49% 0.00% Labour Labour
Manchester Central 2.54% 60.38% 2.18% 11.98% Labour Labour
Manchester Gorton 8.52% 60.37% 10.39% 0.00% Labour Labour
Manchester Withington 9.63% 54.64% 15.95% 6.38% Liberal Democrat Labour
Morecambe & Lunesdale 29.52% 43.79% 3.90% 14.33% Conservative Labour
Oldham East & Saddleworth 9.29% 47.56% 9.54% 19.99% Labour Labour
Oldham West & Royton 18.31% 54.81% 6.09% 11.88% Labour Labour
Pendle 32.34% 40.08% 6.92% 12.95% Conservative Labour
Penrith & The Border 52.01% 19.64% 11.42% 12.92% Conservative Conservative
Preston 16.53% 57.18% 7.66% 16.26% Labour Labour
Ribble Valley 39.76% 27.17% 6.69% 25.11% Conservative Conservative
Rochdale 15.20% 47.64% 11.93% 17.38% Labour Labour
Rossendale & Darwen 34.16% 41.08% 6.10% 13.32% Conservative Labour
Salford & Eccles 17.01% 51.97% 9.02% 10.31% Labour Labour
Sefton Central 26.34% 50.69% 6.37% 15.63% Labour Labour
South Ribble 35.95% 42.72% 4.60% 13.83% Conservative Labour
Southport 37.02% 15.14% 21.11% 25.24% Liberal Democrat Conservative
St Helens North 16.38% 59.16% 6.10% 16.43% Labour Labour
St Helens South & Whiston 13.85% 64.07% 7.12% 9.83% Labour Labour
Stalybridge & Hyde 23.76% 44.59% 5.07% 11.26% Labour Labour
Stockport 19.27% 50.58% 7.83% 7.96% Labour Labour
Stretford & Urmston 19.76% 52.13% 4.80% 10.98% Labour Labour
Tatton 55.13% 27.16% 9.38% 0.00% Conservative Conservative
Wallasey 23.51% 60.47% 4.22% 10.29% Labour Labour
Warrington North 26.17% 61.44% 7.42% 0.00% Labour Labour
Warrington South 29.84% 42.82% 9.45% 11.72% Conservative Labour
Weaver Vale 30.69% 45.03% 6.11% 8.75% Conservative Labour
Westmorland & Lonsdale 49.41% 4.78% 33.76% 10.09% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Wigan 17.39% 53.14% 4.46% 19.04% Labour Labour
Wirral South 31.10% 50.09% 5.38% 11.95% Labour Labour
Wirral West 35.04% 46.65% 5.72% 8.94% Conservative Labour
Workington 26.30% 55.09% 4.34% 8.23% Labour Labour
Worsley & Eccles South 24.07% 49.51% 5.04% 17.18% Labour Labour
Wyre & Preston North 44.10% 27.95% 7.46% 19.22% Conservative Conservative
Wythenshawe & Sale East 6.67% 39.65% 0.93% 39.20% Labour Labour


Yorkshire and the Humber seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Conservative 5 14 1 15
Labour 1 30 7 37
Liberal Democrat 3 0 0 0
Respect 0 1 0 1
UKIP 0 0 1 1


Yorkshire and the Humber vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Conservative 39.60% 34.96% 0.88x
Green 1.00% 6.49% 6.49x
Labour 28.10% 32.63% 1.16x
Liberal Democrat 24.20% 8.75% 0.36x
UKIP 3.50% 15.05% 4.30x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Yorkshire and the Humber:

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Respect UKIP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Barnsley Central 4.98% 48.22% 1.03% 0.00% 35.82% Labour Labour
Barnsley East 13.35% 50.11% 6.02% 0.00% 17.79% Labour Labour
Batley & Spen 29.84% 49.33% 5.77% 0.00% 0.00% Labour Labour
Beverley & Holderness 40.77% 24.02% 8.05% 0.00% 14.62% Conservative Conservative
Bradford East 29.31% 47.13% 15.08% 0.00% 0.00% Liberal Democrat Labour
Bradford South 24.84% 46.34% 6.39% 0.00% 14.65% Labour Labour
Bradford West 6.20% 24.37% 1.39% 46.94% 11.94% Respect Respect
Brigg & Goole 38.03% 36.94% 5.08% 0.00% 16.46% Conservative Conservative
Calder Valley 34.62% 31.18% 9.06% 0.00% 9.70% Conservative Conservative
Cleethorpes 33.06% 33.62% 5.86% 0.00% 27.16% Conservative Labour
Colne Valley 33.39% 31.35% 10.44% 0.00% 9.25% Conservative Conservative
Dewsbury 31.12% 37.64% 6.17% 0.00% 0.00% Conservative Labour
Don Valley 24.55% 41.31% 5.79% 0.00% 17.68% Labour Labour
Doncaster Central 21.49% 45.30% 7.49% 0.00% 14.39% Labour Labour
Doncaster North 16.82% 49.78% 4.87% 0.00% 16.87% Labour Labour
Elmet & Rothwell 37.63% 40.09% 5.90% 0.00% 12.28% Conservative Labour
Great Grimsby 24.80% 34.94% 7.46% 0.00% 24.53% Labour Labour
Halifax 31.44% 45.48% 7.25% 0.00% 6.77% Labour Labour
Haltemprice & Howden 50.47% 20.69% 10.88% 0.00% 0.00% Conservative Conservative
Harrogate & Knaresborough 53.96% 9.97% 21.16% 0.00% 11.42% Conservative Conservative
Hemsworth 22.10% 55.92% 4.81% 0.00% 0.00% Labour Labour
Huddersfield 22.24% 40.88% 8.11% 0.00% 0.00% Labour Labour
Hull East 12.33% 46.90% 6.94% 0.00% 29.10% Labour Labour
Hull North 11.20% 44.04% 13.04% 0.00% 16.98% Labour Labour
Hull West & Hessle 16.55% 45.78% 8.14% 0.00% 21.39% Labour Labour
Keighley 36.20% 40.62% 5.23% 0.00% 12.96% Conservative Labour
Leeds Central 19.09% 61.41% 8.08% 0.00% 0.00% Labour Labour
Leeds East 21.50% 61.50% 6.65% 0.00% 0.00% Labour Labour
Leeds North East 30.11% 51.05% 7.29% 0.00% 7.85% Labour Labour
Leeds North West 28.69% 29.84% 21.01% 0.00% 7.26% Liberal Democrat Labour
Leeds West 13.85% 39.09% 6.96% 0.00% 10.07% Labour Labour
Morley & Outwood 30.51% 42.70% 5.93% 0.00% 12.97% Labour Labour
Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford 22.65% 58.72% 6.22% 0.00% 0.00% Labour Labour
Penistone & Stocksbridge 26.57% 42.30% 7.35% 0.00% 17.26% Labour Labour
Pudsey 34.99% 41.99% 7.76% 0.00% 11.03% Conservative Labour
Richmond (Yorks) 55.79% 17.84% 6.95% 0.00% 0.00% Conservative Conservative
Rother Valley 22.45% 42.58% 5.62% 0.00% 21.52% Labour Labour
Rotherham 2.69% 30.48% 0.43% 4.68% 52.64% Labour UKIP
Scarborough & Whitby 36.36% 29.41% 7.83% 0.00% 12.46% Conservative Conservative
Scunthorpe 25.48% 40.59% 5.85% 0.00% 17.31% Labour Labour
Selby & Ainsty 44.32% 30.33% 6.52% 0.00% 13.81% Conservative Conservative
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 9.25% 58.27% 6.58% 0.00% 16.09% Labour Labour
Sheffield Central 8.42% 45.14% 13.92% 0.00% 6.36% Labour Labour
Sheffield Hallam 24.66% 22.17% 22.93% 0.00% 11.92% Liberal Democrat Conservative
Sheffield Heeley 13.46% 43.55% 9.04% 0.00% 14.17% Labour Labour
Sheffield South East 14.32% 52.77% 7.87% 0.00% 18.30% Labour Labour
Shipley 41.40% 31.90% 6.99% 0.00% 0.00% Conservative Conservative
Skipton & Ripon 51.07% 13.34% 13.40% 0.00% 17.15% Conservative Conservative
Thirsk & Malton 44.77% 15.09% 8.08% 0.00% 27.06% Conservative Conservative
Wakefield 30.30% 43.92% 5.68% 0.00% 0.00% Labour Labour
Wentworth & Dearne 12.50% 47.39% 4.70% 0.00% 28.14% Labour Labour
York Central 19.81% 39.92% 7.83% 0.00% 8.76% Labour Labour
York Outer 45.88% 23.99% 15.77% 0.00% 10.73% Conservative Conservative
Yorkshire East 39.01% 21.94% 7.12% 0.00% 16.73% Conservative Conservative


Northern Ireland seat change summary:

Party Seats Lost Seats Held Seats Won Total Seats
Alliance Party 0 1 0 1
DUP 0 8 0 8
SDLP 0 3 0 3
Sinn Fein 1 4 0 4
Sylvia Hermon 0 1 0 1
UUP 0 0 1 1


Northern Ireland vote share multiplying factors:

Party 2010 % Predicted % Multiplier
Alliance 6.00% 7.80% 1.30x
DUP 25.00% 24.92% 1.00x
SDLP 16.00% 17.45% 1.09x
Sinn Fein 26.00% 23.89% 0.92x
UUP 15.00% 15.31% 1.02x


Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Northern Ireland:

Constituency Alliance Party DUP SDLP Sinn Fein Sylvia Hermon UUP 2010 Result 2015 Prediction
Antrim East 11.08% 45.75% 7.22% 6.22% 0.00% 0.00% DUP DUP
Antrim North 3.24% 46.40% 9.64% 11.45% 0.00% 0.00% DUP DUP
Antrim South 7.70% 33.95% 9.51% 12.83% 0.00% 0.00% DUP DUP
Belfast East 37.26% 32.70% 1.15% 2.18% 0.00% 0.00% Alliance Party Alliance Party
Belfast North 4.97% 40.58% 13.62% 31.79% 0.00% 0.00% DUP DUP
Belfast South 14.42% 22.76% 43.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% SDLP SDLP
Belfast West 0.00% 6.32% 15.33% 67.86% 0.00% 1.79% Sinn Fein Sinn Fein
Down North 5.56% 0.00% 2.20% 0.68% 62.81% 0.00% Sylvia Hermon Sylvia Hermon
Down South 1.28% 8.32% 51.57% 25.76% 0.00% 0.00% SDLP SDLP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 0.95% 0.00% 8.45% 42.48% 0.00% 47.17% Sinn Fein UUP
Foyle 0.58% 11.57% 47.71% 28.74% 0.00% 0.00% SDLP SDLP
Lagan Valley 11.32% 49.19% 5.42% 3.65% 0.00% 0.00% DUP DUP
Londonderry East 5.46% 34.23% 16.71% 17.59% 0.00% 0.00% DUP DUP
Newry & Armagh 1.22% 12.84% 25.66% 38.74% 0.00% 0.00% Sinn Fein Sinn Fein
Strangford 8.54% 44.95% 7.13% 3.22% 0.00% 0.00% DUP DUP
Tyrone West 2.33% 19.93% 15.42% 45.02% 0.00% 0.00% Sinn Fein Sinn Fein
Ulster Mid 0.00% 0.00% 19.34% 43.93% 0.00% 0.00% Sinn Fein Sinn Fein
Upper Bann 2.96% 33.57% 13.84% 22.63% 0.00% 0.00% DUP DUP

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