Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and Scottish seat predictions

Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election
Individual points are poll results.  Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th.  Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll.
The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average.  The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.

Scotland seat change summary:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats	Change
Conservative	0	1	2	3	+2
Labour	29	12	0	12	-29
Liberal Democrat	11	0	0	0	-11
SNP	0	6	37	43	+37
UKIP	0	0	1	1	+1

Scotland vote share multiplying factors:

Party	2010 %	Predicted %	Multiplier
Conservative	16.74%	16.32%	0.97x
Green	0.68%	3.21%	4.70x
Labour	42.00%	26.86%	0.64x
Liberal Democrat	18.88%	5.41%	0.29x
SNP	19.93%	43.07%	2.16x
UKIP	0.70%	4.01%	5.74x

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	SNP	UKIP	2010 Result	2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North	12.53%	29.51%	5.53%	49.93%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeen South	24.21%	28.02%	9.75%	30.73%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	33.03%	9.76%	12.33%	37.95%	5.65%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Airdrie & Shotts	8.48%	37.05%	2.31%	50.68%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Angus	21.76%	7.95%	2.23%	61.74%	6.30%	SNP	SNP
Argyll & Bute	24.11%	14.96%	9.33%	42.14%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	25.74%	31.17%	2.75%	40.29%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Ayrshire Central	20.68%	31.80%	3.56%	42.90%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran	14.44%	28.73%	2.72%	53.13%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Banff & Buchan	22.38%	6.68%	2.42%	66.51%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	41.35%	8.20%	16.32%	24.90%	8.75%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	15.11%	18.75%	14.13%	49.37%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	8.80%	47.49%	2.70%	40.59%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	8.03%	36.45%	2.72%	51.22%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Dumfries & Galloway	31.67%	30.16%	2.60%	27.31%	7.85%	Labour	Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	37.77%	18.83%	5.78%	23.72%	8.12%	Conservative	Conservative
Dunbartonshire East	19.42%	28.07%	14.26%	29.29%	8.39%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Dunbartonshire West	7.23%	37.90%	2.25%	42.01%	8.97%	Labour	SNP
Dundee East	11.03%	15.86%	2.25%	60.80%	4.53%	SNP	SNP
Dundee West	8.39%	28.64%	3.02%	57.63%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West	8.54%	38.40%	13.05%	29.81%	9.64%	Labour	Labour
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	11.66%	30.36%	2.62%	45.89%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
East Lothian	18.73%	27.89%	4.72%	33.89%	6.26%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh East	9.40%	24.50%	4.91%	38.89%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith	17.77%	29.22%	11.82%	25.43%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh South	26.45%	27.94%	12.26%	20.81%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh South West	25.47%	29.51%	5.56%	28.32%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh West	28.39%	22.29%	12.94%	35.75%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Falkirk	8.86%	23.67%	2.39%	52.95%	11.75%	Labour	SNP
Fife North East	23.31%	12.06%	13.97%	33.72%	16.26%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Glasgow Central	6.61%	31.97%	4.51%	36.37%	4.44%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow East	4.12%	36.88%	1.35%	50.09%	3.49%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow North	7.81%	32.35%	10.21%	29.28%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North East	5.97%	50.21%	2.53%	35.10%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North West	10.02%	35.77%	4.69%	34.13%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow South	10.57%	31.33%	3.21%	41.24%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow South West	7.05%	44.08%	2.85%	38.94%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glenrothes	6.84%	38.81%	2.14%	45.70%	5.86%	Labour	SNP
Gordon	18.46%	13.04%	10.47%	48.65%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Inverclyde	7.92%	28.22%	0.52%	58.52%	4.82%	Labour	SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	13.39%	14.57%	12.02%	41.64%	7.21%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	12.98%	31.60%	1.98%	52.75%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	9.53%	43.41%	2.81%	32.51%	10.02%	Labour	Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East	13.92%	30.44%	3.08%	43.25%	7.24%	Labour	SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East	11.32%	30.98%	3.57%	53.43%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Livingston	9.57%	28.27%	2.90%	51.13%	4.84%	Labour	SNP
Midlothian	10.97%	28.49%	4.64%	42.27%	5.04%	Labour	SNP
Moray	17.83%	7.67%	2.92%	60.22%	10.66%	SNP	SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw	9.82%	42.10%	3.03%	42.26%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)	3.09%	15.18%	1.54%	71.27%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire	16.43%	19.94%	2.69%	49.12%	6.45%	Labour	SNP
Orkney & Shetland	10.64%	7.09%	18.47%	23.72%	37.71%	Liberal Democrat	UKIP
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	14.85%	36.06%	3.15%	43.01%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South	10.36%	40.75%	2.92%	41.74%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Perth & North Perthshire	22.64%	7.99%	2.69%	65.13%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Renfrewshire East	33.31%	36.49%	2.97%	21.52%	4.69%	Labour	Labour
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	12.84%	10.41%	16.25%	35.17%	11.70%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West	9.83%	40.58%	3.59%	36.31%	8.61%	Labour	Labour
Stirling	22.29%	25.41%	3.96%	35.53%	4.61%	Labour	SNP

Bookies predictions for seats won in UK 2015 General Election

Here is the mean of bookies predictions for seats won in the UK 2015 General Election plotted over time:

Mean of Bookies predictions for seats won in UK 2015 General Election

Mean of Bookies predictions showing Con+LibDem & Lab+SNP

 These values were collected by repeatedly scraping bookies websites for odds given for various bands of seats for each party, eg:

As I type this Ladbrokes is giving 7/4 odds for SNP getting 40 to 49 seats in Westminster.

Each of those odds is turned into a probability, the mean of each party/band is then amalgamated to give a number of seats which the bookies as a gestalt think each party will win.

Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and Scottish seat predictions

Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election
Individual points are poll results.  Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th.  Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll.
The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average.  The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.

Scotland seat change summary:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats	Change
Conservative	0	1	2	3	+2
Labour	29	12	0	12	-29
Liberal Democrat	11	0	0	0	-11
SNP	0	6	37	43	+37
UKIP	0	0	1	1	+1

Scotland vote share multiplying factors:

Party	2010 %	Predicted %	Multiplier
Conservative	16.74%	16.32%	0.97x
Green	0.68%	3.21%	4.70x
Labour	42.00%	26.86%	0.64x
Liberal Democrat	18.88%	5.41%	0.29x
SNP	19.93%	43.07%	2.16x
UKIP	0.70%	4.01%	5.74x

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland:

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	SNP	UKIP	2010 Result	2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North	12.53%	29.51%	5.53%	49.93%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeen South	24.21%	28.02%	9.75%	30.73%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	33.03%	9.76%	12.33%	37.95%	5.65%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Airdrie & Shotts	8.48%	37.05%	2.31%	50.68%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Angus	21.76%	7.95%	2.23%	61.74%	6.30%	SNP	SNP
Argyll & Bute	24.11%	14.96%	9.33%	42.14%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	25.74%	31.17%	2.75%	40.29%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Ayrshire Central	20.68%	31.80%	3.56%	42.90%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran	14.44%	28.73%	2.72%	53.13%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Banff & Buchan	22.38%	6.68%	2.42%	66.51%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	41.35%	8.20%	16.32%	24.90%	8.75%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	15.11%	18.75%	14.13%	49.37%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	8.80%	47.49%	2.70%	40.59%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	8.03%	36.45%	2.72%	51.22%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Dumfries & Galloway	31.67%	30.16%	2.60%	27.31%	7.85%	Labour	Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	37.77%	18.83%	5.78%	23.72%	8.12%	Conservative	Conservative
Dunbartonshire East	19.42%	28.07%	14.26%	29.29%	8.39%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Dunbartonshire West	7.23%	37.90%	2.25%	42.01%	8.97%	Labour	SNP
Dundee East	11.03%	15.86%	2.25%	60.80%	4.53%	SNP	SNP
Dundee West	8.39%	28.64%	3.02%	57.63%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West	8.54%	38.40%	13.05%	29.81%	9.64%	Labour	Labour
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	11.66%	30.36%	2.62%	45.89%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
East Lothian	18.73%	27.89%	4.72%	33.89%	6.26%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh East	9.40%	24.50%	4.91%	38.89%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith	17.77%	29.22%	11.82%	25.43%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh South	26.45%	27.94%	12.26%	20.81%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh South West	25.47%	29.51%	5.56%	28.32%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh West	28.39%	22.29%	12.94%	35.75%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Falkirk	8.86%	23.67%	2.39%	52.95%	11.75%	Labour	SNP
Fife North East	23.31%	12.06%	13.97%	33.72%	16.26%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Glasgow Central	6.61%	31.97%	4.51%	36.37%	4.44%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow East	4.12%	36.88%	1.35%	50.09%	3.49%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow North	7.81%	32.35%	10.21%	29.28%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North East	5.97%	50.21%	2.53%	35.10%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North West	10.02%	35.77%	4.69%	34.13%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow South	10.57%	31.33%	3.21%	41.24%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow South West	7.05%	44.08%	2.85%	38.94%	0.00%	Labour	Labour
Glenrothes	6.84%	38.81%	2.14%	45.70%	5.86%	Labour	SNP
Gordon	18.46%	13.04%	10.47%	48.65%	0.00%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Inverclyde	7.92%	28.22%	0.52%	58.52%	4.82%	Labour	SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	13.39%	14.57%	12.02%	41.64%	7.21%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	12.98%	31.60%	1.98%	52.75%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	9.53%	43.41%	2.81%	32.51%	10.02%	Labour	Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East	13.92%	30.44%	3.08%	43.25%	7.24%	Labour	SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East	11.32%	30.98%	3.57%	53.43%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Livingston	9.57%	28.27%	2.90%	51.13%	4.84%	Labour	SNP
Midlothian	10.97%	28.49%	4.64%	42.27%	5.04%	Labour	SNP
Moray	17.83%	7.67%	2.92%	60.22%	10.66%	SNP	SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw	9.82%	42.10%	3.03%	42.26%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)	3.09%	15.18%	1.54%	71.27%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire	16.43%	19.94%	2.69%	49.12%	6.45%	Labour	SNP
Orkney & Shetland	10.64%	7.09%	18.47%	23.72%	37.71%	Liberal Democrat	UKIP
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	14.85%	36.06%	3.15%	43.01%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South	10.36%	40.75%	2.92%	41.74%	0.00%	Labour	SNP
Perth & North Perthshire	22.64%	7.99%	2.69%	65.13%	0.00%	SNP	SNP
Renfrewshire East	33.31%	36.49%	2.97%	21.52%	4.69%	Labour	Labour
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	12.84%	10.41%	16.25%	35.17%	11.70%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West	9.83%	40.58%	3.59%	36.31%	8.61%	Labour	Labour
Stirling	22.29%	25.41%	3.96%	35.53%	4.61%	Labour	SNP

Bookies predictions for seats won in UK 2015 General Election

Here is the mean of bookies predictions for seats won in the UK 2015 General Election plotted over time:

Bookies predictions for seats won in UK 2015 General Election

These values were collected by repeatedly scraping bookies websites for odds given for various bands of seats for each party, eg:

As I type this Ladbrokes is giving 7/4 odds for SNP getting 40 to 49 seats in Westminster.

Each of those odds is turned into a probability, the mean of each party/band is then amalgamated to give a number of seats which the bookies as a gestalt think each party will win.

Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and overall elections predictions

Latest Scottish Poll of Polls for UK 2015 General Election and overall elections predictions
Poll of polls for Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate in UK 2015 General Election:



Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election

Voting Intention of the Scottish Electorate for UK 2015 General Election
Individual points are poll results.  Poll results are centred on the midway point of a poll, so if poll was taken from the 11th to the 13th it will be placed at the 12th.  Point size is a rough indicator of the sample count of the poll.
The lines are an exponentially smoothed sample count weighted moving average.  The Scottish part extracted from a UK wide poll with only 150 usable samples will have a lesser effect on the moving average than a poll of Scotland with 1000 samples.

What would happen if 100% of Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and UKIP voters voted tactically?

This is a model of what would happen if all Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and UKIP voters in Scotland dropped their principles and voted tactically against the SNP.   I've taken my previous UK GE 2015 predictions and then moved taken all unionist party votes to which ever party would be chosen tactically.

I've used two variants of the model:

• One where tactical voters decide which non-SNP party to vote based on 2010 GE results.
• One where tactical voters decide which non-SNP party to vote based on current polls.

Scotland seat change summary assuming 100% tactical voting based on GE 2010 results:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats
Conservative	0	1	0	1
Labour	13	28	0	28
Liberal Democrat	2	9	0	9
SNP	0	6	15	21

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland assuming 100% tactical voting based on GE 2010 results:

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	SNP	2010 Result	2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North	0.00%	47.64%	0.00%	49.86%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeen South	0.00%	61.74%	0.00%	30.63%	Labour	Labour
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	0.00%	0.00%	60.50%	38.20%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Airdrie & Shotts	0.00%	48.03%	0.00%	50.49%	Labour	SNP
Angus	38.06%	0.00%	0.00%	61.92%	SNP	SNP
Argyll & Bute	0.00%	0.00%	48.02%	41.97%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	0.00%	59.79%	0.00%	40.15%	Labour	Labour
Ayrshire Central	0.00%	56.17%	0.00%	42.77%	Labour	Labour
Ayrshire North & Arran	0.00%	46.04%	0.00%	52.98%	Labour	SNP
Banff & Buchan	31.52%	0.00%	0.00%	66.47%	SNP	SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	0.00%	0.00%	74.36%	25.16%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	0.00%	0.00%	47.78%	49.57%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	0.00%	59.19%	0.00%	40.40%	Labour	Labour
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	0.00%	47.38%	0.00%	51.05%	Labour	SNP
Dumfries & Galloway	0.00%	72.25%	0.00%	27.34%	Labour	Labour
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	70.13%	0.00%	0.00%	23.72%	Conservative	Conservative
Dunbartonshire East	0.00%	0.00%	69.92%	29.52%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Dunbartonshire West	0.00%	56.29%	0.00%	42.07%	Labour	Labour
Dundee East	0.00%	33.48%	0.00%	60.69%	SNP	SNP
Dundee West	0.00%	40.18%	0.00%	57.49%	Labour	SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West	0.00%	69.41%	0.00%	30.02%	Labour	Labour
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	0.00%	44.53%	0.00%	45.49%	Labour	SNP
East Lothian	0.00%	57.21%	0.00%	33.76%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh East	0.00%	38.32%	0.00%	38.30%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh North & Leith	0.00%	58.24%	0.00%	25.24%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh South	0.00%	66.04%	0.00%	20.67%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh South West	0.00%	60.21%	0.00%	28.08%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh West	0.00%	0.00%	63.52%	35.84%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Falkirk	0.00%	46.41%	0.00%	53.20%	Labour	SNP
Fife North East	0.00%	0.00%	65.11%	34.19%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Glasgow Central	0.00%	47.10%	0.00%	36.10%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow East	0.00%	45.95%	0.00%	49.99%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow North	0.00%	49.75%	0.00%	28.96%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North East	0.00%	58.91%	0.00%	34.91%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North West	0.00%	50.18%	0.00%	33.76%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow South	0.00%	44.93%	0.00%	40.83%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow South West	0.00%	54.17%	0.00%	38.77%	Labour	Labour
Glenrothes	0.00%	53.68%	0.00%	45.68%	Labour	Labour
Gordon	0.00%	0.00%	41.60%	48.54%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Inverclyde	0.00%	41.52%	0.00%	58.48%	Labour	SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	0.00%	0.00%	46.51%	41.72%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	0.00%	46.74%	0.00%	52.57%	Labour	SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	0.00%	65.72%	0.00%	32.55%	Labour	Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East	0.00%	54.60%	0.00%	43.31%	Labour	Labour
Linlithgow & Falkirk East	0.00%	46.01%	0.00%	53.30%	Labour	SNP
Livingston	0.00%	45.56%	0.00%	51.14%	Labour	SNP
Midlothian	0.00%	48.85%	0.00%	42.12%	Labour	Labour
Moray	38.73%	0.00%	0.00%	60.58%	SNP	SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw	0.00%	55.12%	0.00%	42.09%	Labour	Labour
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)	0.00%	19.90%	0.00%	71.16%	SNP	SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire	0.00%	45.25%	0.00%	49.05%	Labour	SNP
Orkney & Shetland	0.00%	0.00%	73.11%	24.44%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	0.00%	54.21%	0.00%	42.86%	Labour	Labour
Paisley & Renfrewshire South	0.00%	54.20%	0.00%	41.57%	Labour	Labour
Perth & North Perthshire	33.36%	0.00%	0.00%	65.09%	SNP	SNP
Renfrewshire East	0.00%	77.49%	0.00%	21.48%	Labour	Labour
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	0.00%	0.00%	50.15%	35.35%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Rutherglen & Hamilton West	0.00%	62.55%	0.00%	36.36%	Labour	Labour
Stirling	0.00%	55.96%	0.00%	35.37%	Labour	Labour

Scotland seat change summary assuming 100% tactical voting based on current polls:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats
Conservative	0	1	6	7
Labour	14	27	2	29
Liberal Democrat	9	2	0	2
SNP	0	6	15	21

Predicted UK GE 2015 Constituency results in Scotland assuming 100% tactical voting based on current polls:

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	SNP	2010 Result	2015 Prediction
Aberdeen North	0.00%	47.64%	0.00%	49.86%	Labour	SNP
Aberdeen South	0.00%	61.74%	0.00%	30.63%	Labour	Labour
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	60.50%	0.00%	0.00%	38.20%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Airdrie & Shotts	0.00%	48.03%	0.00%	50.49%	Labour	SNP
Angus	38.06%	0.00%	0.00%	61.92%	SNP	SNP
Argyll & Bute	48.02%	0.00%	0.00%	41.97%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	0.00%	59.79%	0.00%	40.15%	Labour	Labour
Ayrshire Central	0.00%	56.17%	0.00%	42.77%	Labour	Labour
Ayrshire North & Arran	0.00%	46.04%	0.00%	52.98%	Labour	SNP
Banff & Buchan	31.52%	0.00%	0.00%	66.47%	SNP	SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	74.36%	0.00%	0.00%	25.16%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	0.00%	47.78%	0.00%	49.57%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	0.00%	59.19%	0.00%	40.40%	Labour	Labour
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	0.00%	47.38%	0.00%	51.05%	Labour	SNP
Dumfries & Galloway	72.25%	0.00%	0.00%	27.34%	Labour	Conservative
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	70.13%	0.00%	0.00%	23.72%	Conservative	Conservative
Dunbartonshire East	0.00%	69.92%	0.00%	29.52%	Liberal Democrat	Labour
Dunbartonshire West	0.00%	56.29%	0.00%	42.07%	Labour	Labour
Dundee East	0.00%	33.48%	0.00%	60.69%	SNP	SNP
Dundee West	0.00%	40.18%	0.00%	57.49%	Labour	SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West	0.00%	69.41%	0.00%	30.02%	Labour	Labour
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	0.00%	44.53%	0.00%	45.49%	Labour	SNP
East Lothian	0.00%	57.21%	0.00%	33.76%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh East	0.00%	38.32%	0.00%	38.30%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh North & Leith	0.00%	58.24%	0.00%	25.24%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh South	0.00%	66.04%	0.00%	20.67%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh South West	0.00%	60.21%	0.00%	28.08%	Labour	Labour
Edinburgh West	63.52%	0.00%	0.00%	35.84%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Falkirk	0.00%	46.41%	0.00%	53.20%	Labour	SNP
Fife North East	65.11%	0.00%	0.00%	34.19%	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Glasgow Central	0.00%	47.10%	0.00%	36.10%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow East	0.00%	45.95%	0.00%	49.99%	Labour	SNP
Glasgow North	0.00%	49.75%	0.00%	28.96%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North East	0.00%	58.91%	0.00%	34.91%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow North West	0.00%	50.18%	0.00%	33.76%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow South	0.00%	44.93%	0.00%	40.83%	Labour	Labour
Glasgow South West	0.00%	54.17%	0.00%	38.77%	Labour	Labour
Glenrothes	0.00%	53.68%	0.00%	45.68%	Labour	Labour
Gordon	41.60%	0.00%	0.00%	48.54%	Liberal Democrat	SNP
Inverclyde	0.00%	41.52%	0.00%	58.48%	Labour	SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	0.00%	46.51%	0.00%	41.72%	Liberal Democrat	Labour
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	0.00%	46.74%	0.00%	52.57%	Labour	SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	0.00%	65.72%	0.00%	32.55%	Labour	Labour
Lanark & Hamilton East	0.00%	54.60%	0.00%	43.31%	Labour	Labour
Linlithgow & Falkirk East	0.00%	46.01%	0.00%	53.30%	Labour	SNP
Livingston	0.00%	45.56%	0.00%	51.14%	Labour	SNP
Midlothian	0.00%	48.85%	0.00%	42.12%	Labour	Labour
Moray	38.73%	0.00%	0.00%	60.58%	SNP	SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw	0.00%	55.12%	0.00%	42.09%	Labour	Labour
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)	0.00%	19.90%	0.00%	71.16%	SNP	SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire	0.00%	45.25%	0.00%	49.05%	Labour	SNP
Orkney & Shetland	0.00%	0.00%	73.11%	24.44%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	0.00%	54.21%	0.00%	42.86%	Labour	Labour
Paisley & Renfrewshire South	0.00%	54.20%	0.00%	41.57%	Labour	Labour
Perth & North Perthshire	33.36%	0.00%	0.00%	65.09%	SNP	SNP
Renfrewshire East	0.00%	77.49%	0.00%	21.48%	Labour	Labour
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	0.00%	0.00%	50.15%	35.35%	Liberal Democrat	Liberal Democrat
Rutherglen & Hamilton West	0.00%	62.55%	0.00%	36.36%	Labour	Labour
Stirling	0.00%	55.96%	0.00%	35.37%	Labour	Labour

If only 50% of voters for each party are willing to vote tactically the overall results would be:

Party	Seats Lost	Seats Held	Seats Won	Total Seats
Conservative	0	1	5	6
Labour	18	23	1	24
Liberal Democrat	10	1	0	1
SNP	0	6	22	28